SF vs LAD prediction for May 11, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects LAD 2.9 - SF 3.2. SF is favored with a 53.8% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 9.5. Model projects 6.1 total runs.
LAD
2.9
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.5
SF
3.2
Projected Score
Win Probability
LADSF
-1.5
Run Line (LAD)
9.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.6% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
SF
135
LAD
135
Projected
LAD 2.9 — SF 3.2
Actual
LAD 3 — SF 9
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Trevor McDonald R
SF
SL48%86 mph38% whiff
SI40%93 mph9% whiff
CH7%84 mph22% whiff
Roki Sasaki R
LAD
FF43%97 mph13% whiff
FS38%87 mph38% whiff
SL19%86 mph33% whiff
Weather Impact
Dodger Stadium
67°F7 mph wind
HR: 0.989 Total: 0.991
7mph in
Bullpen Comparison
SF
3.61ERA
4.17FIP
7.86K/9
4.96BB/9
1.40WHIP
LAD
3.32ERA
3.10FIP
9.77K/9
3.38BB/9
1.16WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL OVER 9.5
-52.6% EV
+100
TOTAL UNDER 9.5
+38.8% EV
-122
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-33.8% EV
+110
F5 UNDER 5.5
+32.8% EV
-132
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-30.0% EV
-132
F5_ML HOME
-27.9% EV
-159
First 5 Innings & NRFI
SF F5
1.8 runs
46.6% win
LAD F5
1.3 runs
30.4% win
F5 Total
3.2
NRFI
64.8%
YRFI
35.2%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.64
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.5
Over 0.5 HR
78%
Over 1.5 HR
46%
No HR
22%
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Trevor McDonald
0.0 K projected
SF | K/9: 0.0
Roki Sasaki
0.0 K projected
LAD | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
SF8 injured
Daniel Susac C10-DAY-IL
Logan Webb SP15-DAY-IL
Jared Oliva CF60-DAY-IL
Harrison Bader CF10-DAY-IL
Rowan Wick RP60-DAY-IL
Erik Miller RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
LAD8 injured
Ben Casparius RP15-DAY-IL
Edwin Diaz RP60-DAY-IL
Brock Stewart RP15-DAY-IL
Mookie Betts SS10-DAY-IL
Tommy Edman 2B60-DAY-IL
Tyler Glasnow SP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1YELLOW ZONE50.5% WR (n=247)
Pitcher mismatch is HISTORIC: Trevor McDonald (SF-A) 1.39 ERA, B+ grade, elite control vs Roki Sasaki (LAD-H) 6.45 ERA, C+ grade, high walk rate. Combined with Dodger Stadium marine layer suppression (wind IN, neutral-cool), weather multiplier 0.991, creates structural under environment. Market total 9.5 is 3.4 runs TOO HIGH vs model projection 6.13 total.
Key Factors
- HISTORIC pitcher mismatch: McDonald 1.39 ERA (ace) vs Sasaki 6.45 ERA (struggling). 5.06 ERA gap = 30-40% win prob swing to SF
- Market mispricing LAD at -185 (64.9% implied) despite starting pitcher with 6.45 ERA against 1.39 ERA ace
- Weather structural suppression: 67.4°F cool + wind IN (-7.0 mph) + Dodger Stadium marine layer = 0.991 run multiplier
- Model total 6.13 vs market 9.5 = 3.37 run gap (55.8% undervalue on UNDER bettors) — most extreme edge on slate
- Mookie Betts (LAD-SS) and Tommy Edman (LAD-2B) both out (IL) — reduces LAD offensive capability vs elite pitcher
Risk Factors
- Edge of 38.8% triggers HIGH_EDGE_WARNING in calibration. Historical 15%+ edge zone shows 33.3% WR (4-8) — model likely overconfident
- Market may have information on Sasaki's recent performance or health not captured in season ERA
- Dodger Stadium marine layer is variable; if winds shift or conditions change, suppression effect could disappear
PITCHER MISMATCHWEATHER IMPACTPARK FACTORTOTALS VALUEHIGH EDGE WARNINGMARINE LAYER SUPPRESSION
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
SF 53.8%
-33.8 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-33.8 pts
Total
9.5
+38.8 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →