SF vs LAD prediction for May 13, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects LAD 3.1 - SF 2.1. LAD is favored with a 64.1% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 5.2 total runs.
LAD
3.1
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
SF
2.1
Projected Score
Win Probability
LADSF
-1.5
Run Line (LAD)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 65.3% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
SF
024
LAD
135
Projected
LAD 3.1 — SF 2.1
Actual
LAD 4 — SF 0
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Robbie Ray L
SF
FF49%93 mph18% whiff
SL31%85 mph34% whiff
CH14%86 mph34% whiff
Shohei Ohtani R
LAD
FF43%98 mph26% whiff
ST24%85 mph41% whiff
CU14%75 mph53% whiff
Weather Impact
Dodger Stadium
62°F8 mph wind
HR: 0.978 Total: 0.986
8mph in
Bullpen Comparison
SF
3.43ERA
4.10FIP
7.91K/9
4.90BB/9
1.36WHIP
LAD
3.60ERA
3.19FIP
9.64K/9
3.64BB/9
1.23WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-49.0% EV
-110
TOTAL OVER 7.5
-48.8% EV
-123
TOTAL UNDER 7.5
+44.9% EV
+102
F5 UNDER 3.5
+34.9% EV
+114
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-16.2% EV
-110
NRFI NRFI
+15.6% EV
-147
First 5 Innings & NRFI
SF F5
0.9 runs
22.8% win
LAD F5
1.8 runs
51.7% win
F5 Total
2.7
NRFI
72.9%
YRFI
27.1%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.48
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.4
Over 0.5 HR
74%
Over 1.5 HR
40%
No HR
26%
Andy Pages LAD22.7%
ISO: 0.225 | Barrel: 13.1% | vs Robbie Ray | Park: 0.92x Platoon: 1.12x
Kyle Tucker LAD21.7%
ISO: 0.172 | Barrel: 7.3% | vs Robbie Ray | Park: 0.92x
Teoscar Hernández LAD19.8%
ISO: 0.115 | Barrel: 11.5% | vs Robbie Ray | Park: 0.92x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Robbie Ray
0.0 K projected
SF | K/9: 0.0
Shohei Ohtani
0.0 K projected
LAD | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
SF8 injured
Jason Foley RP60-DAY-IL
Erik Miller RP15-DAY-IL
Daniel Susac C10-DAY-IL
Logan Webb SP15-DAY-IL
Jared Oliva CF60-DAY-IL
Rowan Wick RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
LAD8 injured
Ben Casparius RP15-DAY-IL
Edwin Diaz RP60-DAY-IL
Brock Stewart RP15-DAY-IL
Tommy Edman 2B60-DAY-IL
Tyler Glasnow SP15-DAY-IL
Landon Knack SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
STRONG BET +2YELLOW ZONE50.4% WR (n=252)
Shohei Ohtani (1.05 ERA, A- grade, 32.5% K, elite 0.813 stuff) is a generational ace dominating Robbie Ray (2.98 ERA, B-, 26.2% K); model projects 5.21 total runs vs 7.5 market for ELITE +44.9% UNDER edge (71.7% model prob). F5 UNDER +34.9%, NRFI +15.6% all align; this is our STRONGEST play of the day — SF @ LAD UNDER 7.5.
Key Factors
- Pitcher elite: Ohtani 1.05 ERA (A- grade, 32.5% K, elite stuff 0.813) vs Ray 2.98 ERA (B-, 26.2% K); generational ace vs solid starter
- UNDER edge: +44.9% (model 71.7% under vs market 26.9% for under); 2.29 run gap on 7.5 total is elite
- F5 UNDER: +34.9% edge (63.1% model prob); Ohtani dominance extends to first 5 innings
- NRFI: +15.6% edge (68.8% NRFI prob); elite starter with K rate 32.5% suppresses early scoring
- Weather: 62°F cool, 8 mph in, park factor 0.92 (suppresses); marine layer works with Ohtani's dominance
Risk Factors
- Elite edge (44.9%) has worst historical track record; extreme regression risk (but size down to 1.5x to manage)
- YELLOW zone on totals (50.4% WR) — totals betting is unreliable; actual WR likely 45-50% despite 44.9% edge
- Giants have explosive bats (Snell, Floyd); Dodgers power lineup could strike early if Ohtani gives up early contact
ELITE PITCHERPITCHER MISMATCHELITE UNDER EDGEF5 EDGENRFI EDGEWEATHER IMPACT
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
LAD 64.1%
-16.2 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-16.2 pts
Total
7.5
+44.9 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →