SF vs MIA prediction for June 19, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects MIA 4.2 - SF 4.5. SF is favored with a 50.1% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 8.7 total runs.
MIA
4.2
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
SF
4.5
Projected Score
Win Probability
MIASF
+1.5
Run Line (MIA)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 51.1% (2,456 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
SF
346
MIA
246
Projected
MIA 4.2 — SF 4.5
Actual
MIA 4 — SF 3
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Landen Roupp R
SF
SI36%93 mph9% whiff
CU28%77 mph36% whiff
CH19%87 mph31% whiff
Lake Bachar R
MIA
FF32%95 mph19% whiff
SL24%90 mph45% whiff
ST19%86 mph37% whiff
Weather Impact
loanDepot park
87°F10 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.060 Total: 1.032
thin air, 5mph out
Bullpen Comparison
SF
4.06ERA
4.43FIP
8.10K/9
4.84BB/9
1.41WHIP
MIA
3.85ERA
3.56FIP
9.97K/9
4.48BB/9
1.21WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-37.9% EV
-185
F5_ML HOME
-14.0% EV
-112
TOTAL OVER 8.0
-9.9% EV
-118
TOTAL UNDER 8.0
-9.8% EV
-104
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-5.7% EV
+152
ML HOME
-5.4% EV
-112
First 5 Innings & NRFI
SF F5
2.4 runs
46.8% win
MIA F5
2.0 runs
36.8% win
F5 Total
4.4
NRFI
58.8%
YRFI
41.2%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.83
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.0
Over 0.5 HR
85%
Over 1.5 HR
57%
No HR
15%
Bryce Eldridge SF25.5%
ISO: 0.223 | Barrel: 11.6% | vs Lake Bachar | Park: 0.93x Platoon: 1.12x
Willy Adames SF15.1%
ISO: 0.201 | Barrel: 9.5% | vs Lake Bachar | Park: 0.93x
Rafael Devers SF14.5%
ISO: 0.212 | Barrel: 8.9% | vs Lake Bachar | Park: 0.93x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Landen Roupp
0.0 K projected
SF | K/9: 0.0
Lake Bachar
0.0 K projected
MIA | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
SF8 injured
Heliot Ramos LF10-DAY-IL
Tyler Mahle SP15-DAY-IL
Jason Foley RP60-DAY-IL
Harrison Bader CF10-DAY-IL
Keaton Winn RP15-DAY-IL
Joel Peguero RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
MIA8 injured
Eury Perez SP15-DAY-IL
Janson Junk SP15-DAY-IL
Griffin Conine LF60-DAY-IL
Thomas White SPDAY-TO-DAY
Josh Ekness RP15-DAY-IL
Andrew Nardi RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRALYELLOW ZONE50.6% WR (n=234)
Coin flip game: All edges tiny (2-5% range), zones YELLOW/RED, market fairly priced at -112/-104 even odds; no actionable advantage exists.
Key Factors
- Bachar K-rate 29.6% (elite) > Roupp 25.8% (good): Marginal pitcher advantage MIA
- Market -112/-104: True pick-em; no sharp action detected
Risk Factors
- All edges 2-5% range: Too small for reliable ROI
- Market efficient; no information asymmetry
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
SF 50.1%
-37.9 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-37.9 pts
Total
8.0
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →