SF vs MIA prediction for June 20, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects MIA 4.6 - SF 4.8. MIA is favored with a 50.1% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 9.4 total runs.
MIA
4.6
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
SF
4.8
Projected Score
Win Probability
MIASF
-1.5
Run Line (MIA)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 49.5% (2,480 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
SF
357
MIA
357
Projected
MIA 4.6 — SF 4.8
Actual
MIA 6 — SF 3
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Trevor McDonald R
SF
SI56%94 mph14% whiff
SL28%86 mph40% whiff
CH14%83 mph36% whiff
Max Meyer R
MIA
ST29%89 mph34% whiff
SL25%90 mph39% whiff
FF24%95 mph12% whiff
Weather Impact
loanDepot park
88°F8 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.044 Total: 1.023
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
SF
4.06ERA
4.43FIP
8.10K/9
4.84BB/9
1.41WHIP
MIA
3.85ERA
3.56FIP
9.97K/9
4.48BB/9
1.21WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-34.1% EV
-192
TOTAL UNDER 8.0
-21.1% EV
-115
F5_ML HOME
-16.4% EV
-147
ML HOME
-11.8% EV
-139
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-11.3% EV
+158
F5_ML AWAY
+9.5% EV
+118
First 5 Innings & NRFI
SF F5
2.6 runs
44.7% win
MIA F5
2.4 runs
40.3% win
F5 Total
5.0
NRFI
56.7%
YRFI
43.3%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.92
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.4
Over 0.5 HR
90%
Over 1.5 HR
68%
No HR
10%
Bryce Eldridge SF30.0%
ISO: 0.223 | Barrel: 11.6% | vs Max Meyer | Park: 0.93x Platoon: 1.12x
Eric Haase SF25.5%
ISO: 0.352 | Barrel: 16.9% | vs Max Meyer | Park: 0.93x
Liam Hicks MIA24.5%
ISO: 0.230 | Barrel: 11.7% | vs Trevor McDonald | Park: 0.93x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Trevor McDonald
0.0 K projected
SF | K/9: 0.0
Max Meyer
0.0 K projected
MIA | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
SF8 injured
Tyler Mahle SP15-DAY-IL
Heliot Ramos LF10-DAY-IL
Jason Foley RP60-DAY-IL
Harrison Bader CF10-DAY-IL
Keaton Winn RP15-DAY-IL
Joel Peguero RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
MIA8 injured
Eury Perez SP15-DAY-IL
Xavier Edwards 2BDAY-TO-DAY
Janson Junk SP15-DAY-IL
Griffin Conine LF60-DAY-IL
Thomas White SPDAY-TO-DAY
Josh Ekness RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRALYELLOW ZONE50.5% WR (n=239)
Max Meyer (MIA, 0.559 B grade, 2.97 ERA, 8.0 K/9) vs Trevor McDonald (SF, 0.513 B- grade, 5.01 ERA, 8.0 K/9). Meyer advantage is clear (2.97 vs 5.01 ERA), but MIA lineup is hurt: Liam Hicks (C, DAY-TO-DAY, back tightness scratched 06-20). SF @ MIA is roughly even on ML (50.1% home, 49.9% away per model). Edges are marginal (6.2% away ML, 2.2% OVER). Liam Hicks scratch is key — if he's out, MIA offensive power drops 1-2 runs.
Key Factors
- Meyer (2.97 ERA, 0.559 B grade) has real advantage vs McDonald (5.01 ERA, 0.513 B- grade)
- K-rates equal (8.0 K/9 both) — no strikeout mismatch
- Liam Hicks (C) scratched 06-20 per ESPN with back tightness — status unclear for today
- Away ML edge 6.2% is below standard 8% threshold; low-value bet
- OVER 8.0 edge just 2.2% — well below actionable range
Risk Factors
- If Hicks plays, model edge restores to ~7-8% range; if out, model overestimates MIA runs by 1-2
- Marginal edges across all markets (no market >6.2%)
- Outdoor retractable roof (closed), but 87.9F heat still applies (1.023 multiplier)
INJURY IMPACTMARGINAL EDGESLINEUP CHANGE
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
MIA 50.1%
-11.3 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-11.3 pts
Total
8.0
+2.2 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →