SF vs MIA prediction for June 21, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects MIA 3.9 - SF 4.9. SF is favored with a 55.0% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 8.8 total runs.
MIA
3.9
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
SF
4.9
Projected Score
Win Probability
MIASF
+1.5
Run Line (MIA)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 55.5% (2,497 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
SF
357
MIA
246
Projected
MIA 3.9 — SF 4.9
Actual
MIA 2 — SF 1
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Logan Webb R
SF
SI34%92 mph10% whiff
CH24%86 mph29% whiff
ST20%84 mph20% whiff
Ryan Gusto R
MIA
FF28%94 mph19% whiff
CH19%87 mph32% whiff
FC14%89 mph14% whiff
Weather Impact
loanDepot park
90°F8 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.062 Total: 1.033
thin air, 5mph out
Bullpen Comparison
SF
4.06ERA
4.43FIP
8.10K/9
4.84BB/9
1.41WHIP
MIA
3.85ERA
3.56FIP
9.97K/9
4.48BB/9
1.21WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-41.6% EV
-141
F5_ML HOME
-16.3% EV
+132
ML AWAY
-6.4% EV
-145
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
-6.1% EV
-120
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-4.7% EV
+116
TOTAL OVER 8.5
-3.6% EV
-102
First 5 Innings & NRFI
SF F5
2.9 runs
55.0% win
MIA F5
1.9 runs
29.2% win
F5 Total
4.8
NRFI
56.1%
YRFI
43.9%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.94
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.5
Over 0.5 HR
91%
Over 1.5 HR
70%
No HR
9%
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Logan Webb
0.0 K projected
SF | K/9: 0.0
Ryan Gusto
0.0 K projected
MIA | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
SF8 injured
Tyler Mahle SP15-DAY-IL
Heliot Ramos LF10-DAY-IL
Jason Foley RP60-DAY-IL
Harrison Bader CF10-DAY-IL
Keaton Winn RP15-DAY-IL
Joel Peguero RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
MIA8 injured
Liam Hicks CDAY-TO-DAY
Eury Perez SP15-DAY-IL
Janson Junk SP15-DAY-IL
Griffin Conine LF60-DAY-IL
Thomas White SPDAY-TO-DAY
Josh Ekness RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1RED ZONE45.4% WR (n=116)
Model favors away despite pitcher disadvantage (Webb 3.74 ERA is BETTER than Gusto's TBD/unreliable data): SF has 55% win probability but market -144 away odds implies only 42.4% — +12.6% edge on underdog dogs rarely get this kind of value.
Key Factors
- SP matchup: Webb (3.74 ERA, 21% K-rate, B- stuff) has edge over Gusto (no Bayesian ERA, TBD quality)
- Market seems to be overvaluing home field advantage — Miami +90.2F humid retractable roof but SF marine layer actually impacts
- Away ML RED zone (45.4% WR, n=116) is a CAUTION signal — historically away dogs with 10-15% edges lose
- But combo zone MLB|ml|any|away = 42.1% WR — even worse for away bets
Risk Factors
- Away ML in RED zone: this is a money pit historically. Even 13% edge doesn't overcome zone disadvantage
- SF is traveling (marine layer mental edge but physically tired); MIA fresh at home
- Market consensus is strong: -144 for MIA home is where the money is
ML VALUEPLATOON ADVANTAGEAWAY DOG VALUEYELLOW ZONE
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
SF 55.0%
-41.6 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-41.6 pts
Total
8.5
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →