Who is predicted to win SF vs MIL on June 1, 2026?

Based on 10,000 Pitch Sim v5.3 Monte Carlo simulations, MIL is favored with a 56.2% win probability. The simulation's mean projected score is MIL 4.4 - SF 3.9.

How does Olympus Bets generate sports predictions?

Every projection is produced by a league-specific Monte Carlo simulation engine (10,000+ iterations per game), Platt-scaled and isotonic-calibrated against historical outcomes, then sized with the Kelly Criterion plus a 15% Bayesian probability shrinkage. The full methodology is documented at https://app.olympus-bets.com/methodology.

SF vs MIL Prediction & Picks — June 1, 2026

SF vs MIL prediction for June 1, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects MIL 4.4 - SF 3.9. MIL is favored with a 56.2% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 8.3 total runs.

MIL

4.4

Projected Score

VS O/U 7.5

3.9

Projected Score

Win Probability

56.2%

43.8%

MILSF

-1.5

Run Line (MIL)

7.5

Total Line

10,000

Simulations

☑ Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.9% (2,300 games)

Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile

246

MIL

246

Starting Pitcher Matchup

Landen Roupp R

SI37%93 mph9% whiff

CU29%77 mph36% whiff

CH19%87 mph30% whiff

Shane Drohan L

MIL

FF26%95 mph24% whiff

FC20%90 mph16% whiff

SI19%95 mph12% whiff

Weather Impact

American Family Field

70°F9 mph windRoof: retractable

HR: 1.060 Total: 1.033

7mph out

Bullpen Comparison

3.30ERA

4.07FIP

8.01K/9

4.77BB/9

1.31WHIP

MIL

3.52ERA

3.20FIP

9.59K/9

4.21BB/9

1.32WHIP

Betting Edges

RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5

-40.7% EV

-179

TOTAL UNDER 7.5

-8.1% EV

-115

F5_ML HOME

-7.8% EV

-123

NRFI NRFI

+6.0% EV

-125

ML HOME

-5.1% EV

-147

RUN_LINE HOME -1.5

-5.0% EV

+146

First 5 Innings & NRFI

SF F5

2.1 runs

40.8% win

MIL F5

2.2 runs

41.4% win

F5 Total

4.3

NRFI

62.4%

YRFI

37.6%

Avg 1st Inn Runs

0.75

HR Spotlight

Avg HRs

1.5

Over 0.5 HR

76%

Over 1.5 HR

43%

No HR

23%

Pitcher Strikeout Projections

Landen Roupp

0.0 K projected

SF | K/9: 0.0

Shane Drohan

0.0 K projected

MIL | K/9: 0.0

Injury Report

SF8 injured

Joel Peguero RPDAY-TO-DAY

Jared Oliva CF60-DAY-IL

Harrison Bader CF10-DAY-IL

Tyler Mahle SP15-DAY-IL

Heliot Ramos LF10-DAY-IL

Reiver Sanmartin RP60-DAY-IL

+2 more

MIL7 injured

Angel Zerpa RP60-DAY-IL

Quinn Priester SP15-DAY-IL

Jared Koenig RP15-DAY-IL

Brandon Woodruff SP15-DAY-IL

Logan Henderson SP15-DAY-IL

Brandon Lockridge LF10-DAY-IL

+1 more

AI Intelligence Analysis

Pitcher wash with NRFI edge, but NRFI disabled — neutral lean

YELLOW ZONE54.2% WR (n=8)

Landen Roupp (B-, 10.2% K) has a razor-thin edge over Shane Drohan (B, 9.7% K), but Drohan's command (0.666 vs 0.432) nearly balances it. Model projects MIL home 56.2% but market prices 59.5% — the market overvalues MIL by ~3%. The real edge is NRFI (6.0%, 58.9% prob), suggesting low first-inning scoring baseline (0.75 F1 runs). But NRFI is DISABLED by calibration (grade F, 262 picks). Without that play, the ML edge is tiny. Lean MIL ML with extreme caution (0.5 units) as a counter-market play, but this is a meh game without the NRFI option.

Pitcher matchup nearly even: Roupp 10.2% K (slight edge) vs Drohan 9.7% K, but command favors Drohan (0.666 vs 0.432). Net wash.
NRFI edge 6.0% (58.9% prob) is real — first inning baseline low (0.75 runs) suggests both teams ice-cold early.
+ 1 more factors with Premium

MODEL MARKET CONFLICT

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Edge Analysis

Moneyline

MIL 56.2%

-5.0 pts

Run Line