SF vs MIL prediction for June 2, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects MIL 4.3 - SF 3.3. MIL is favored with a 61.5% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.0. Model projects 7.6 total runs.
MIL
4.3
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.0
SF
3.3
Projected Score
Win Probability
MILSF
-1.5
Run Line (MIL)
7.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 55.4% (2,497 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
SF
135
MIL
246
Projected
MIL 4.3 — SF 3.3
Actual
MIL 8 — SF 3
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Trevor McDonald R
SF
SI59%94 mph16% whiff
SL27%86 mph38% whiff
CH13%84 mph44% whiff
Kyle Harrison L
MIL
FF59%95 mph28% whiff
SV28%82 mph27% whiff
CH11%86 mph21% whiff
Weather Impact
American Family Field
68°F7 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.051 Total: 1.029
6mph out
Bullpen Comparison
SF
3.30ERA
4.07FIP
8.01K/9
4.77BB/9
1.31WHIP
MIL
3.52ERA
3.20FIP
9.59K/9
4.21BB/9
1.32WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-40.3% EV
-108
ML AWAY
+16.0% EV
+215
TOTAL OVER 7.0
-14.8% EV
-118
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-14.5% EV
-111
ML HOME
-12.8% EV
-263
F5_ML HOME
-12.0% EV
-213
First 5 Innings & NRFI
SF F5
1.6 runs
33.8% win
MIL F5
2.1 runs
46.8% win
F5 Total
3.8
NRFI
64.6%
YRFI
35.4%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.67
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.3
Over 0.5 HR
73%
Over 1.5 HR
38%
No HR
27%
Casey Schmitt SF18.2%
ISO: 0.241 | Barrel: 15.5% | vs Kyle Harrison | Platoon: 1.12x
Willy Adames SF7.8%
ISO: 0.088 | Barrel: 8.7% | vs Kyle Harrison | Platoon: 1.12x
Rafael Devers SF7.6%
ISO: 0.088 | Barrel: 8.6% | vs Kyle Harrison
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Trevor McDonald
0.0 K projected
SF | K/9: 0.0
Kyle Harrison
0.0 K projected
MIL | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
SF8 injured
Landen Roupp SPDAY-TO-DAY
Heliot Ramos LF10-DAY-IL
Joel Peguero RP60-DAY-IL
Jared Oliva CF60-DAY-IL
Harrison Bader CF10-DAY-IL
Tyler Mahle SP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
MIL7 injured
Quinn Priester SP15-DAY-IL
Brandon Lockridge LF10-DAY-IL
Brandon Woodruff SP15-DAY-IL
Angel Zerpa RP60-DAY-IL
Jared Koenig RP15-DAY-IL
Logan Henderson SP15-DAY-IL
+1 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -1RED ZONE44.1% WR (n=192)
Model favors home MIL 61.5% despite SF's Kyle Harrison (10.7 K/9, elite B stuff) significantly outpitching Trevor McDonald (8.5 K/9). SF away ML edge 16.0% lands in RED zone away (40.5% WR n=88), classic model-market conflict signature.
Key Factors
- Harrison K-rate dominance: 10.7 vs McDonald 8.5 K/9 (26% strikeout advantage)
- RED zone away: 44.1% WR n=192 contradicts 16.0% edge
- Model favors home (61.5%) despite away having better pitcher (MODEL_MARKET_CONFLICT flag)
- American Family Field neutral weather, slight park advantage (1.0x factor)
Risk Factors
- Elite-level pitcher (Harrison 10.7 K/9) historically outperforms in low-edge spots
- Away ML in RED zone is consistent model failure pattern; recommend SKIP
- Market -263 (home) respects Harrison quality better than model does
RED ZONEMODEL MARKET CONFLICTPITCHER MISMATCHDATA INTEGRITY
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
MIL 61.5%
-14.5 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-14.5 pts
Total
7.0
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →