Who is predicted to win SF vs MIL on June 3, 2026?

Based on 10,000 Pitch Sim v5.3 Monte Carlo simulations, MIL is favored with a 54.1% win probability. The simulation's mean projected score is MIL 5.1 - SF 4.8.

How did SF vs MIL on June 3, 2026 end?

Final score: MIL 0 - SF 1. This page now shows our pre-game projection alongside the actual outcome for transparency — every Olympus Bets projection is preserved with its result.

How does Olympus Bets generate sports predictions?

Every projection is produced by a league-specific Monte Carlo simulation engine (10,000+ iterations per game), Platt-scaled and isotonic-calibrated against historical outcomes, then sized with the Kelly Criterion plus a 15% Bayesian probability shrinkage. The full methodology is documented at https://app.olympus-bets.com/methodology.

SF vs MIL Prediction & Picks — June 3, 2026

SF vs MIL prediction for June 3, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects MIL 5.1 - SF 4.8. MIL is favored with a 54.1% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 9.9 total runs.

MIL

5.1

Projected Score

VS O/U 8.0

4.8

Projected Score

Win Probability

54.1%

45.9%

MILSF

-1.5

Run Line (MIL)

8.0

Total Line

10,000

Simulations

☑ Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 52.8% (2,514 games)

Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile

357

MIL

357

Projected

MIL 5.1 — SF 4.8

Actual

MIL 0 — SF 1

Starting Pitcher Matchup

Logan Webb R

SI38%92 mph12% whiff

CH22%86 mph27% whiff

ST20%84 mph21% whiff

Robert Gasser L

MIL

SI28%92 mph5% whiff

FC24%88 mph33% whiff

ST24%80 mph33% whiff

Weather Impact

American Family Field

76°F11 mph windRoof: retractable

HR: 1.044 Total: 1.023

neutral

Bullpen Comparison

3.30ERA

4.07FIP

8.01K/9

4.77BB/9

1.31WHIP

MIL

3.52ERA

3.20FIP

9.59K/9

4.21BB/9

1.32WHIP

Betting Edges

RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5

-37.5% EV

-192

TOTAL UNDER 8.0

-25.6% EV

-108

F5_ML HOME

-8.2% EV

-118

F5 OVER 4.5

+7.6% EV

+104

TOTAL OVER 8.0

+5.0% EV

-112

ML HOME

-4.4% EV

-132

First 5 Innings & NRFI

SF F5

2.8 runs

43.6% win

MIL F5

2.8 runs

42.0% win

F5 Total

5.5

NRFI

54.6%

YRFI

45.4%

Avg 1st Inn Runs

1.00

HR Spotlight

Avg HRs

2.4

Over 0.5 HR

90%

Over 1.5 HR

68%

No HR

10%

Casey Schmitt SF30.0%

ISO: 0.241 | Barrel: 15.5% | vs Robert Gasser | Platoon: 1.12x

Jake Bauers MIL23.2%

ISO: 0.214 | Barrel: 10.5% | vs Logan Webb | Platoon: 1.12x

Willy Adames SF16.1%

ISO: 0.088 | Barrel: 8.7% | vs Robert Gasser | Platoon: 1.12x

Pitcher Strikeout Projections

Logan Webb

0.0 K projected

SF | K/9: 0.0

Robert Gasser

0.0 K projected

MIL | K/9: 0.0

Injury Report

SF8 injured

Matt Gage RP15-DAY-IL

Landen Roupp SPDAY-TO-DAY

Heliot Ramos LF10-DAY-IL

Joel Peguero RP60-DAY-IL

Jared Oliva CF60-DAY-IL

Harrison Bader CF10-DAY-IL

+2 more

MIL8 injured

Rob Zastryzny RP15-DAY-IL

Quinn Priester SP15-DAY-IL

Brandon Lockridge LF10-DAY-IL

Brandon Woodruff SP15-DAY-IL

Angel Zerpa RP60-DAY-IL

Jared Koenig RP15-DAY-IL

+2 more

AI Intelligence Analysis

NEUTRALYELLOW ZONE52.3% WR (n=89)

Model leans MIL home (54.3%) with only -4.4% ML edge (home favorite RED zone). Robert Gasser (0.417 C+, 7.8 K/9) vs Logan Webb (0.391 C+, 7.9 K/9) — pitching is a near-toss-up. Model projects slightly better for home team, but market at -131 (56.7%) already prices home field + slight pitching edge. No edge. SKIP.

Key Factors

SP matchup near identical: Gasser 0.417 C+ (7.8 K/9) vs Webb 0.391 C+ (7.9 K/9) = 0.26 grade gap, essentially tied on K rates
MIL total 9.86 vs market 8.0 = 1.86 run difference suggests model sees more run value, but two mediocre SPs don't typically drive overs
Market pricing home favorite (-131) at 56.7%, model at 54.3% — model is WORSE than market by 2.5%

Risk Factors

Home favorite in coin-flip game typically a fade spot (market overcounts home field effect)
Two C+ SPs suggest volatile game — could be 3-1 or 6-5, not predictable

NEUTRAL ZONENO EDGEMODEL MARKET AGREEMENT

Edge Analysis

Moneyline

MIL 54.1%

-1.2 pts

Run Line