SF vs MIL prediction for June 4, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects MIL 5.6 - SF 4.8. MIL is favored with a 58.3% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 9.0. Model projects 10.4 total runs.
MIL
5.6
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.0
SF
4.8
Projected Score
Win Probability
MILSF
-1.5
Run Line (MIL)
9.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 60.5% (1,970 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
SF
357
MIL
468
Projected
MIL 5.6 — SF 4.8
Actual
MIL 9 — SF 12
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Adrian Houser R
SF
SI46%95 mph7% whiff
CH18%85 mph30% whiff
FF13%96 mph20% whiff
Coleman Crow R
MIL
FC36%88 mph18% whiff
CU19%74 mph25% whiff
FF18%92 mph6% whiff
Weather Impact
American Family Field
85°F13 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 0.993 Total: 0.993
thin air, 9mph in
Bullpen Comparison
SF
3.85ERA
4.25FIP
7.79K/9
4.81BB/9
1.40WHIP
MIL
3.32ERA
3.19FIP
9.64K/9
4.10BB/9
1.28WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-36.7% EV
-130
TOTAL UNDER 9.0
-19.8% EV
-102
ML HOME
-9.0% EV
-189
F5_ML HOME
-8.1% EV
-175
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-7.6% EV
+108
TOTAL OVER 9.0
-5.0% EV
-120
First 5 Innings & NRFI
SF F5
2.6 runs
36.4% win
MIL F5
3.2 runs
49.7% win
F5 Total
5.8
NRFI
52.2%
YRFI
47.8%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.08
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.6
Over 0.5 HR
92%
Over 1.5 HR
73%
No HR
8%
Casey Schmitt SF30.0%
ISO: 0.249 | Barrel: 13.6% | vs Coleman Crow
Rafael Devers SF30.0%
ISO: 0.215 | Barrel: 8.6% | vs Coleman Crow | Platoon: 1.12x
Bryce Eldridge SF30.0%
ISO: 0.196 | Barrel: 9.9% | vs Coleman Crow | Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Adrian Houser
0.0 K projected
SF | K/9: 0.0
Coleman Crow
0.0 K projected
MIL | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
SF8 injured
Matt Gage RP15-DAY-IL
Landen Roupp SPDAY-TO-DAY
Heliot Ramos LF10-DAY-IL
Joel Peguero RP60-DAY-IL
Jared Oliva CF60-DAY-IL
Harrison Bader CF10-DAY-IL
+2 more
MIL8 injured
Logan Henderson SP15-DAY-IL
Rob Zastryzny RP15-DAY-IL
Quinn Priester SP15-DAY-IL
Brandon Lockridge LF10-DAY-IL
Brandon Woodruff SP15-DAY-IL
Angel Zerpa RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRALYELLOW ZONE50.8% WR (n=18)
Market is sharp: Crow's elite command (0.833) and Houser's weak command (0.587) create pitcher advantage to home, BUT wind-in suppression (-9.3 mph) + MIL bullpen strength (3.32 ERA, 2nd best league) fully priced into 9.0 total. Model's 51.9% over at 9.0 is fair; no edge exists.
Key Factors
- Pitcher advantage to home: Crow 3.39 ERA (B-, 0.833 command score) vs Houser 6.04 ERA (C, 0.587 command) — command gap is primary differentiator
- Wind-in suppression: 13.2 mph wind BLOWING IN (-9.3 tail wind) is MAJOR; Wrigley's retractable roof closed adds to effect
- Bullpen edge: MIL 3.32 ERA (ranked ~5th best) vs SF 3.85 ERA — MIL has depth advantage
- Market total 9.0 vs model 10.39: Market is ~1.4 runs lower, reflecting wind effect. Market likely correct.
- Low edge: Only 4.6% model edge on away side; small enough that away red zone (45.5% WR) could easily overcome
Risk Factors
- Bullpen injuries: DL Hall and Grant Anderson (MIL relievers) left game Thursday with injuries. Depth now questionable despite ERA ranking.
- Model run projection: 10.39 total with elite command pitchers seems high despite wind-in; market at 9.0 reflects weather sensitivity
- Away red zone combo: Still a 41.6% WR headwind despite modest edge
WEATHER IMPACTBULLPEN FATIGUE
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
MIL 58.3%
-7.6 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-7.6 pts
Total
9.0
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →