SF vs OAK prediction for May 15, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects OAK 4.2 - SF 4.0. OAK is favored with a 52.7% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 10.0. Model projects 8.2 total runs.
OAK
4.2
Projected Score
VS
O/U 10.0
SF
4.0
Projected Score
Win Probability
OAKSF
-1.5
Run Line (OAK)
10.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 52.0% (2,085 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
SF
246
OAK
246
Projected
OAK 4.2 — SF 4.0
Actual
OAK 5 — SF 2
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Tyler Mahle R
SF
FF48%92 mph21% whiff
FS25%85 mph24% whiff
FC16%88 mph7% whiff
Aaron Civale R
OAK
FC33%88 mph20% whiff
CU22%77 mph27% whiff
SI20%91 mph9% whiff
Weather Impact
Oakland Coliseum
74°F9 mph wind
HR: 0.997 Total: 0.997
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
SF
3.35ERA
4.10FIP
7.74K/9
4.91BB/9
1.35WHIP
OAK
4.38ERA
3.93FIP
9.19K/9
4.59BB/9
1.46WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-37.7% EV
-172
TOTAL OVER 10.0
-36.9% EV
-106
F5 UNDER 5.5
+19.0% EV
-110
TOTAL UNDER 10.0
+18.7% EV
-114
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-12.6% EV
+142
NRFI NRFI
+11.7% EV
+122
First 5 Innings & NRFI
SF F5
2.1 runs
38.2% win
OAK F5
2.4 runs
45.5% win
F5 Total
4.6
NRFI
53.1%
YRFI
46.9%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.98
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.5
Over 0.5 HR
91%
Over 1.5 HR
71%
No HR
9%
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Tyler Mahle
0.0 K projected
SF | K/9: 0.0
Aaron Civale
0.0 K projected
OAK | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
SF8 injured
Jason Foley RP60-DAY-IL
Reiver Sanmartin RP60-DAY-IL
Logan Webb SP15-DAY-IL
Erik Miller RP15-DAY-IL
Daniel Susac C10-DAY-IL
Jared Oliva CF60-DAY-IL
+2 more
OAK5 injured
Brooks Kriske RP15-DAY-IL
Max Muncy 3B10-DAY-IL
Denzel Clarke CF10-DAY-IL
Jacob Wilson SS10-DAY-IL
Gunnar Hoglund SP60-DAY-IL
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEANYELLOW ZONE50.4% WR (n=258)
UNDER 10.0 has 18.7% edge (63.1% model) but sits in YELLOW zone (50.4% WR). F5 UNDER 5.5 at 19.0% edge (62.3% model) is cleaner. Both SPs are mediocre (Aaron Civale 2.80 ERA home, Tyler Mahle 5.59 ERA away showing home-away context). SF has solid bullpen (3.35 ERA, 1.343 quality). OAK bullpen weak (4.38 ERA). Market 10.0 total is reasonable given mediocre arms. YELLOW zone means coin flip long-term despite 18.7% edge. Lean on full-game under or stronger lean on F5 under, but don't overcommit.
Key Factors
- YELLOW zone total (50.4% WR): Edge paradox applies — historical under totals in YELLOW zone break even.
- SP quality favors under: Civale (2.80 ERA) >> Mahle (5.59 ERA away). Civale's home advantage is real.
- Bullpen advantage SF: SF (3.35 ERA, quality 1.343) >> OAK (4.38 ERA). Road team has better arms, suppresses runs.
- F5 UNDER 5.5 (19.0% edge, 62.3%) is cleaner play than full game. Early-game advantage to under supported by SP mismatch.
- Weather neutral: 73.9°F + 4.3mph in = minimal impact. No weather tail.
Risk Factors
- YELLOW zone coin flip: 50.4% WR means long-term these are break-even bets. Even if right directionally, variance dominates.
- Market at 10.0 is reasonable: Civale is decent, Mahle is poor, but OAK is home. 10.0 total is fair given context.
- Calibration disabled totals: We shouldn't be taking ANY total bets given F-grade calibration on spread/total markets.
YELLOW ZONEMODEST EDGECALIBRATION DISABLEDF5 UNDER CLEANER
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
OAK 52.7%
-12.6 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-12.6 pts
Total
10.0
+18.7 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →