SF vs OAK prediction for May 17, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects OAK 2.9 - SF 3.7. SF is favored with a 57.1% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 9.5. Model projects 6.6 total runs.
OAK
2.9
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.5
SF
3.7
Projected Score
Win Probability
OAKSF
-1.5
Run Line (OAK)
9.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 57.1% (2,128 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
SF
246
OAK
135
Projected
OAK 2.9 — SF 3.7
Actual
OAK 1 — SF 10
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Adrian Houser R
SF
SI47%95 mph7% whiff
CH18%86 mph34% whiff
SL15%88 mph16% whiff
Jeffrey Springs L
OAK
FF43%91 mph14% whiff
SL25%84 mph25% whiff
CH20%79 mph43% whiff
Weather Impact
Oakland Coliseum
74°F10 mph wind
HR: 1.001 Total: 0.999
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
SF
3.41ERA
4.13FIP
7.80K/9
4.84BB/9
1.33WHIP
OAK
4.25ERA
3.81FIP
9.28K/9
4.46BB/9
1.46WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL OVER 9.5
-46.7% EV
+100
TOTAL UNDER 9.5
+33.5% EV
-122
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-32.0% EV
+136
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-28.5% EV
-164
F5 UNDER 5.5
+25.6% EV
-147
F5_ML HOME
-24.3% EV
-149
First 5 Innings & NRFI
SF F5
1.9 runs
45.4% win
OAK F5
1.4 runs
32.1% win
F5 Total
3.3
NRFI
68.2%
YRFI
31.8%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.60
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.7
Over 0.5 HR
82%
Over 1.5 HR
51%
No HR
18%
Eric Haase SF30.0%
ISO: 0.200 | Barrel: 20.0% | vs Jeffrey Springs | Park: 0.94x Platoon: 1.12x
Casey Schmitt SF29.7%
ISO: 0.143 | Barrel: 14.0% | vs Jeffrey Springs | Park: 0.94x Platoon: 1.12x
Nick Kurtz OAK24.4%
ISO: 0.271 | Barrel: 12.3% | vs Adrian Houser | Park: 0.94x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Adrian Houser
0.0 K projected
SF | K/9: 0.0
Jeffrey Springs
0.0 K projected
OAK | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
SF8 injured
Heliot Ramos LF10-DAY-IL
Jason Foley RP60-DAY-IL
Reiver Sanmartin RP60-DAY-IL
Logan Webb SP15-DAY-IL
Jared Oliva CF60-DAY-IL
Rowan Wick RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
OAK5 injured
Denzel Clarke CF10-DAY-IL
Brooks Kriske RP15-DAY-IL
Max Muncy 3B10-DAY-IL
Jacob Wilson SS10-DAY-IL
Gunnar Hoglund SP60-DAY-IL
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
SF 57.1%
-32.0 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-32.0 pts
Total
9.5
+33.5 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →