FINAL: SD 3 — SF 9. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected SD 4.3 - SF 4.1 (SD at 52.6% win probability). The run line is 1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 8.4 total runs.
SD
4.3
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
SF
4.1
Projected Score
Win Probability
SDSF
+1.5
Run Line (SD)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
SFSD W4
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.6% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
SF
246
SD
246
Projected
SD 4.3 — SF 4.1
Actual
SD 3 — SF 9
Pick Results
SD MLmlLOSS-1.00u
F5 UNDER 4.5f5_totalLOSS-1.00u
SF @ SD NRFInrfiLOSS-1.00u
UNDER 7.5totalLOSS-1.00u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Adrian Houser R
SF
SI46%94 mph10% whiff
SL16%88 mph20% whiff
CH15%86 mph35% whiff
Nick Pivetta R
SD
FF48%94 mph22% whiff
CU22%79 mph16% whiff
ST18%82 mph35% whiff
Weather Impact
PETCO Park
63°F6 mph wind
HR: 0.987 Total: 0.991
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
SF
3.48ERA
3.12FIP
8.01K/9
3.11BB/9
1.24WHIP
SD
2.48ERA
3.21FIP
9.20K/9
3.50BB/9
1.09WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-34.1% EV
-147
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-26.1% EV
+122
F5_ML AWAY
-16.8% EV
-161
F5 UNDER 4.5
+14.8% EV
-154
F5_ML HOME
+14.0% EV
+128
ML AWAY
-13.9% EV
-139
First 5 Innings & NRFI
SF F5
1.6 runs
37.3% win
SD F5
1.7 runs
40.5% win
F5 Total
3.3
NRFI
62.2%
YRFI
37.8%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.68
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.2
Over 0.5 HR
89%
Over 1.5 HR
64%
No HR
11%
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Adrian Houser
0.0 K projected
SF | K/9: 0.0
Nick Pivetta
0.0 K projected
SD | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
SF8 injured
Joel Peguero RP15-DAY-IL
Sam Hentges RP15-DAY-IL
Hayden Birdsong RP60-DAY-IL
Reiver Sanmartin RP60-DAY-IL
Parks Harber 3BOUT
Rowan Wick RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
SD8 injured
Griffin Canning SP15-DAY-IL
Jason Adam RP15-DAY-IL
Joe Musgrove SP15-DAY-IL
Sung-Mun Song 3B10-DAY-IL
Matt Waldron SP15-DAY-IL
Yu Darvish SPOUT
+2 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
SD 52.6%
-34.1 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-34.1 pts
Total
7.5
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →