SF vs SD prediction for April 1, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects SD 3.6 - SF 4.3. SF is favored with a 55.5% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 7.9 total runs.
SD
3.6
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
SF
4.3
Projected Score
Win Probability
SDSF
-1.5
Run Line (SD)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
SFSD W4
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.6% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
SF
246
SD
246
Pick Results
Nick Pivetta OVER 4.5 Ksk_propsWIN+0.91u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Adrian Houser R
SF
SI46%94 mph10% whiff
SL16%88 mph20% whiff
CH15%86 mph35% whiff
Nick Pivetta R
SD
FF48%94 mph22% whiff
CU22%79 mph16% whiff
ST18%82 mph35% whiff
Weather Impact
PETCO Park
67°F5 mph wind
HR: 0.989 Total: 0.992
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
SF
3.55ERA
3.14FIP
7.89K/9
3.24BB/9
1.25WHIP
SD
2.86ERA
3.38FIP
9.41K/9
3.46BB/9
1.10WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-30.7% EV
-164
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-30.5% EV
+136
F5 UNDER 4.5
+27.8% EV
-125
F5_ML HOME
-23.2% EV
-159
F5_ML AWAY
+22.6% EV
+126
ML AWAY
+20.7% EV
+130
First 5 Innings & NRFI
SF F5
1.7 runs
44.4% win
SD F5
1.3 runs
32.7% win
F5 Total
3.0
NRFI
67.5%
YRFI
32.6%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.58
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.1
Over 0.5 HR
88%
Over 1.5 HR
63%
No HR
12%
Rafael Devers SF19.9%
ISO: 0.256 | Barrel: 11.6% | vs Nick Pivetta | Park: 0.90x Platoon: 1.12x
Jackson Merrill SD19.0%
ISO: 0.226 | Barrel: 10.4% | vs Adrian Houser | Park: 0.90x Platoon: 1.12x
Jung Hoo Lee SF16.6%
ISO: 0.152 | Barrel: 7.0% | vs Nick Pivetta | Park: 0.90x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Adrian Houser
0.0 K projected
SF | K/9: 0.0
Nick Pivetta
0.0 K projected
SD | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
SF8 injured
Joel Peguero RP15-DAY-IL
Sam Hentges RP15-DAY-IL
Hayden Birdsong RP60-DAY-IL
Reiver Sanmartin RP60-DAY-IL
Parks Harber 3BOUT
Rowan Wick RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
SD8 injured
Griffin Canning SP15-DAY-IL
Jason Adam RP15-DAY-IL
Joe Musgrove SP15-DAY-IL
Sung-Mun Song 3B10-DAY-IL
Matt Waldron SP15-DAY-IL
Yu Darvish SPOUT
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEANRED ZONE8.9% WR (n=2551)
Away ML (SF 52.5%, +20.7% edge) edges toward RED zone underperformance despite pitcher parity (Houser B- 0.428 vs Pivetta B 0.584). F5 UNDER edge (27.8%, 71% prob) is stronger play in cold 67F conditions at Petco (0.90 park_factor suppresses runs 10-12%). LEAN F5 UNDER over directional ML.
Key Factors
- Away ML edge (20.7%) is actionable but RED zone trap risk (8.9% WR). Modest edge, not massive.
- F5 UNDER edge substantial: Model 71% on F5 UNDER 4.5 vs market ~45% implied = 26% edge (excellent, not excessive)
- Petco suppression: SD 0.90 park_factor = 10-12% run suppression. Cold 67F further limits runs.
- SP quality: Houser (B-, 0.428, 18.3% K-rate) vs Pivetta (B, 0.584, 26.5% K-rate) — Pivetta slightly better but not dominant
- Marine layer: SD's famous cold, humid conditions favor pitchers. F5 UNDER highly probable
Risk Factors
- Away ML 20.7% edge will underperform historical 8.9% away zone WR
- F5 UNDER (27.8% edge) is large — monitor for overconfidence
PARK FACTORF5 VALUE
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
SF 55.5%
-30.5 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-30.5 pts
Total
8.0
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →