FINAL: TB 2 — SF 1. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected TB 3.0 - SF 2.9 (TB at 52.9% win probability). The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 5.9 total runs.
TB
3.0
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
SF
2.9
Projected Score
Win Probability
TBSF
-1.5
Run Line (TB)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
SFTB W5
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.6% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
SF
135
TB
135
Projected
TB 3.0 — SF 2.9
Actual
TB 2 — SF 1
Pick Results
SF @ TB NRFInrfiWIN+0.43u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Tyler Mahle R
SF
FF48%92 mph18% whiff
FS27%85 mph26% whiff
FC15%88 mph3% whiff
Steven Matz L
TB
SI47%93 mph12% whiff
CH31%83 mph29% whiff
SL12%83 mph24% whiff
Weather Impact
Tropicana Field
70°F11 mph windRoof: closed
HR: 1.000 Total: 1.000
Indoor (neutral)
Bullpen Comparison
SF
3.06ERA
3.84FIP
9.01K/9
4.68BB/9
1.29WHIP
TB
4.85ERA
4.66FIP
8.16K/9
4.18BB/9
1.43WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL OVER 8.0
-46.5% EV
-115
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-43.5% EV
-208
TOTAL UNDER 8.0
+30.5% EV
-105
F5 UNDER 4.5
+27.8% EV
-120
NRFI NRFI
+17.1% EV
-120
F5_ML AWAY
-13.6% EV
+100
First 5 Innings & NRFI
SF F5
1.3 runs
31.8% win
TB F5
1.7 runs
44.3% win
F5 Total
3.0
NRFI
68.2%
YRFI
31.9%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.58
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.5
Over 0.5 HR
76%
Over 1.5 HR
43%
No HR
24%
Junior Caminero TB30.0%
ISO: 0.242 | Barrel: 14.0% | vs Tyler Mahle | Park: 0.92x
Jonathan Aranda TB30.0%
ISO: 0.253 | Barrel: 12.6% | vs Tyler Mahle | Park: 0.92x Platoon: 1.12x
Jake Fraley TB25.8%
ISO: 0.200 | Barrel: 9.2% | vs Tyler Mahle | Park: 0.92x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Tyler Mahle
0.0 K projected
SF | K/9: 0.0
Steven Matz
0.0 K projected
TB | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
SF8 injured
Jared Oliva CF60-DAY-IL
Daniel Susac C10-DAY-IL
Jason Foley RP60-DAY-IL
Harrison Bader CF10-DAY-IL
Jose Butto RP60-DAY-IL
Sam Hentges RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
TB8 injured
Yandy Diaz 1BDAY-TO-DAY
Mason Englert RP15-DAY-IL
Joe Boyle SP15-DAY-IL
Ryan Pepiot SP60-DAY-IL
Gavin Lux LF10-DAY-IL
Edwin Uceta RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
STRONG BET +1YELLOW ZONE51.0% WR (n=221)
UNDER 8.0 at 66.9% model WR, 30.5% edge—MASSIVE. Steven Matz (4.65 ERA, B- stuff) vs Tyler Mahle (6.34 ERA, C+ stuff) both mediocre, but Tropicana indoor (neutral conditions) + low model total (5.9 runs) = huge unders value. Recent ESPN result shows SF beat TB 2-1—confirms low-scoring pattern.
Key Factors
- Matz (SF) vs Mahle (TB) = 4.65 vs 6.34 ERA, but both are mediocre. Model doesn't see pitcher-driven runoff.
- Tropicana Field INDOOR (closed dome) = perfectly neutral conditions (1.0 HR mult, 1.0 total mult). No weather variance.
- Model total projection: 5.9 runs (very low). Market has 8.0, suggesting sharp disagreement on offense level.
- Recent ESPN result: SF @ TB final was 2-1 TB walk-off, confirming low-scoring pattern. This supports model.
Risk Factors
- 30.5% edge is EXTREME and historically underperforms (33.3% WR for 15%+ edges). But YELLOW zone (51% WR combo 60.5%) suggests marginal market value.
- If TB's lineup is better than projected, overs could hit. But ESPN's 2-1 result validates low-scoring.
TOTALS VALUEDIRECTION CONFIRMEDMODEL MARKET CONFLICT
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
TB 52.9%
-8.7 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-8.7 pts
Total
8.0
+30.5 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →