STL vs ATL prediction for June 30, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects ATL 5.4 - STL 4.8. ATL is favored with a 57.4% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 9.5. Model projects 10.2 total runs.
ATL
5.4
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.5
STL
4.8
Projected Score
Win Probability
ATLSTL
-1.5
Run Line (ATL)
9.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 55.8% (2,559 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
STL
357
ATL
357
Projected
ATL 5.4 — STL 4.8
Actual
ATL 3 — STL 5
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Matthew Liberatore L
STL
FF32%94 mph11% whiff
SL21%87 mph32% whiff
CU17%80 mph34% whiff
Martín Pérez L
ATL
CH32%82 mph30% whiff
SI31%89 mph8% whiff
FC22%86 mph17% whiff
Weather Impact
Truist Park
96°F5 mph wind
HR: 1.088 Total: 1.046
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
STL
4.30ERA
4.29FIP
8.27K/9
4.08BB/9
1.36WHIP
ATL
2.18ERA
2.83FIP
9.74K/9
2.51BB/9
1.00WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-39.1% EV
-167
F5_ML AWAY
-15.7% EV
+106
TOTAL UNDER 9.5
-8.5% EV
-120
ML AWAY
-6.0% EV
+120
F5_ML HOME
+4.0% EV
-132
ML HOME
-2.7% EV
-143
First 5 Innings & NRFI
STL F5
2.6 runs
34.6% win
ATL F5
3.4 runs
53.4% win
F5 Total
6.0
NRFI
47.6%
YRFI
52.4%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.19
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
3.1
Over 0.5 HR
95%
Over 1.5 HR
81%
No HR
5%
Matt Olson ATL30.0%
ISO: 0.285 | Barrel: 16.3% | vs Matthew Liberatore
Drake Baldwin ATL30.0%
ISO: 0.316 | Barrel: 13.8% | vs Matthew Liberatore
Ozzie Albies ATL26.3%
ISO: 0.183 | Barrel: 8.0% | vs Matthew Liberatore | Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Matthew Liberatore
0.0 K projected
STL | K/9: 0.0
Martín Pérez
0.0 K projected
ATL | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
STL8 injured
Ryne Stanek RPPATERNITY
Skylar Hales RPDAY-TO-DAY
Chase Davis CFDAY-TO-DAY
Zack Thompson RPDAY-TO-DAY
Sem Robberse SPDAY-TO-DAY
Ramon Urias 3B60-DAY-IL
+2 more
ATL8 injured
Spencer Schwellenbach SP60-DAY-IL
AJ Smith-Shawver SP60-DAY-IL
Robert Suarez RP15-DAY-IL
Danny Young RP60-DAY-IL
Kyle Farmer DH10-DAY-IL
Spencer Strider SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRALYELLOW ZONE56.1% WR (n=17)
Liberatore (STL away, 8.3 K/9, 20.5% K rate, B-) vs Martín Pérez (ATL home, 7.4 K/9, 20.7% K rate, B-). Model favors ATL +2.7% edge (57.3% model vs 58.8% market) — essentially a push. Zone: Home ML YELLOW (56.3% WR, n=145) — barely actionable. Market pricing ATL -142 (58.7%) is nearly identical to model 57.3%. F5 ML shows +4.0% ATL edge (59.1% model prob) — early-game lean but small edge. NEUTRAL: Both pitchers similar K rates (7-8 K/9, B- grade). Truist Park (1.0 factor) neutral. 96.2°F extremely hot with 5mph wind OUT = +1.0 run expansion toward overs, but edge is only -1.0% on totals (50-50 coin flip on 9.5). NO MEANINGFUL EDGE. SKIP.
Key Factors
- Liberatore (8.3 K/9, 20.5% K rate, B-) vs Pérez (7.4 K/9, 20.7% K rate, B-) = pitcher symmetry
- Market -142 (58.7% ATL) vs model 57.3% = only 1.4pp gap — near-perfect market pricing
- Truist Park (1.0 factor) neutral — no park advantage
- 96.2°F hot + 5mph wind OUT slightly favors overs (+1.0 run) but -1.0% totals edge negates
Risk Factors
- No GREEN zone — only YELLOW (56.3% WR) on home ML
- ATL bullpen elite (2.18 ERA, 9.74 K/9, quality 1.80) but game is coin flip due to SP symmetry
- Small edge means high variance — not worth unit commitment
MARKET EFFICIENTPITCHER SYMMETRYNO GREEN ZONESKIP APPROPRIATE
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
ATL 57.4%
-1.6 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-1.6 pts
Total
9.5
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →