STL vs ATL prediction for July 2, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects ATL 4.9 - STL 4.4. ATL is favored with a 56.9% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 9.0. Model projects 9.3 total runs.
ATL
4.9
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.0
STL
4.4
Projected Score
Win Probability
ATLSTL
-1.5
Run Line (ATL)
9.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 56.1% (2,543 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
STL
246
ATL
357
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Matthew Liberatore L
STL
FF32%94 mph11% whiff
SL21%87 mph32% whiff
CU17%80 mph34% whiff
Martín Pérez L
ATL
CH32%82 mph30% whiff
SI31%89 mph8% whiff
FC22%86 mph17% whiff
Weather Impact
Truist Park
98°F8 mph wind
HR: 1.101 Total: 1.053
thin air, 7mph out
Bullpen Comparison
STL
4.30ERA
4.29FIP
8.27K/9
4.08BB/9
1.36WHIP
ATL
2.18ERA
2.83FIP
9.74K/9
2.51BB/9
1.00WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-41.8% EV
-200
TOTAL OVER 9.0
-14.9% EV
-108
TOTAL UNDER 9.0
-8.9% EV
-112
ML AWAY
-8.7% EV
+108
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
+4.1% EV
+164
ML HOME
+0.5% EV
-127
First 5 Innings & NRFI
STL F5
2.3 runs
32.5% win
ATL F5
3.1 runs
53.4% win
F5 Total
5.4
NRFI
51.1%
YRFI
48.9%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.08
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.8
Over 0.5 HR
94%
Over 1.5 HR
77%
No HR
6%
Jordan Walker STL30.0%
ISO: 0.318 | Barrel: 14.7% | vs Martín Pérez | Platoon: 1.12x
Matt Olson ATL30.0%
ISO: 0.285 | Barrel: 16.3% | vs Matthew Liberatore
Drake Baldwin ATL30.0%
ISO: 0.316 | Barrel: 13.8% | vs Matthew Liberatore
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Matthew Liberatore
0.0 K projected
STL | K/9: 0.0
Martín Pérez
0.0 K projected
ATL | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
STL8 injured
Ryne Stanek RPPATERNITY
Skylar Hales RPDAY-TO-DAY
Chase Davis CFDAY-TO-DAY
Zack Thompson RPDAY-TO-DAY
Sem Robberse SPDAY-TO-DAY
Ramon Urias 3B60-DAY-IL
+2 more
ATL8 injured
Ronald Acuna Jr. RF10-DAY-IL
Spencer Schwellenbach SP60-DAY-IL
AJ Smith-Shawver SP60-DAY-IL
Robert Suarez RP15-DAY-IL
Danny Young RP60-DAY-IL
Kyle Farmer DH10-DAY-IL
+2 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
ATL 56.9%
+4.1 pts
Run Line
-1.5
+4.1 pts
Total
9.0
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →