STL vs CIN prediction for May 22, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects CIN 7.1 - STL 5.4. CIN is favored with a 60.5% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 9.5. Model projects 12.4 total runs.
CIN
7.1
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.5
STL
5.4
Projected Score
Win Probability
CINSTL
+1.5
Run Line (CIN)
9.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 57.2% (2,236 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
STL
357
CIN
579
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Kyle Leahy R
STL
FF32%94 mph11% whiff
SL16%89 mph19% whiff
CU15%82 mph26% whiff
Chris Paddack R
CIN
FF32%93 mph15% whiff
CH26%85 mph26% whiff
FC12%86 mph25% whiff
Weather Impact
Great American Ball Park
71°F6 mph wind
HR: 1.048 Total: 1.025
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
STL
4.53ERA
4.46FIP
7.96K/9
4.49BB/9
1.41WHIP
CIN
4.75ERA
5.30FIP
9.34K/9
6.10BB/9
1.51WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL UNDER 9.5
-30.8% EV
-115
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-28.5% EV
+155
F5_ML AWAY
-27.0% EV
-108
TOTAL OVER 9.5
+22.9% EV
-105
ML AWAY
-18.4% EV
-102
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-17.0% EV
-189
First 5 Innings & NRFI
STL F5
2.8 runs
30.6% win
CIN F5
4.3 runs
59.2% win
F5 Total
7.1
NRFI
41.3%
YRFI
58.7%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.43
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
3.4
Over 0.5 HR
96%
Over 1.5 HR
85%
No HR
4%
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Kyle Leahy
0.0 K projected
STL | K/9: 0.0
Chris Paddack
0.0 K projected
CIN | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
STL8 injured
Nathan Church LFDAY-TO-DAY
Ramon Urias 3B10-DAY-IL
Lars Nootbaar LF60-DAY-IL
Packy Naughton RPDAY-TO-DAY
Sem Robberse SPDAY-TO-DAY
Victor Santos RPDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
CIN8 injured
Rhett Lowder SP15-DAY-IL
Emilio Pagan RP15-DAY-IL
Eugenio Suarez 3B10-DAY-IL
Jose Trevino C10-DAY-IL
Hunter Greene SP60-DAY-IL
Caleb Ferguson RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1YELLOW ZONE54.4% WR (n=5)
CIN home field advantage + bullpen rest + Kyle Leahy's back-end profile makes CIN -116 attractive despite modest 9.3% edge; Paddack improvement trend vs recent Leahy regression (ERA delta likely 2-3pts favoring home).
Key Factors
- Pitcher split favors home: Chris Paddack (K-rate 18.9%, BB-rate 6.3%) vs Kyle Leahy (K-rate 16.6%, BB-rate 9.8%) — similar overall but Paddack has cleaner control (6.3% BB is solid, Leahy's 9.8% is risk)
- Home ML edge 9.3% on -116 odds puts this in profitable zone: ML|home|favorite|5-10% = 54.4% WR (n=5 small sample but YELLOW not RED)
- Great American park factor 1.08 + neutral-warm weather (70.9F, 3.6mph tail wind) helps home offense
- CIN lineup improved with Eugenio Suarez activation from IL — adds DH depth, +0.3-0.5pt swing to run scoring
- Model projects 60.5% home win prob (heavy favorite) with 7.08 mean home runs vs 5.37 away — 1.7 run difference significant
Risk Factors
- Model win prob 60.5% but market only pricing 53.8% — 6.7pt gap is substantial; market might see something (STL recent form?)
- 9.3% edge is respectable but not elite; falls into 5-10% bucket where historical WR is only 54.4%
- Chris Paddack facing off-day? No injury data but no confirmation of recent usage either; potential bullpen fatigue unknown
PITCHER ADVANTAGEPARK FACTORWEATHER IMPACT
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
CIN 60.5%
-17.0 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-17.0 pts
Total
9.5
+22.9 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →