STL vs CIN prediction for May 24, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects CIN 6.6 - STL 7.0. STL is favored with a 50.8% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 9.5. Model projects 13.6 total runs.
CIN
6.6
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.5
STL
7.0
Projected Score
Win Probability
CINSTL
-1.5
Run Line (CIN)
9.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 52.3% (2,282 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
STL
579
CIN
579
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Brycen Mautz L
STL
Brady Singer R
CIN
SI47%91 mph11% whiff
SL33%82 mph27% whiff
ST12%81 mph37% whiff
Weather Impact
Great American Ball Park
72°F5 mph wind
HR: 1.003 Total: 0.999
5mph in
Bullpen Comparison
STL
4.38ERA
4.36FIP
8.15K/9
4.53BB/9
1.39WHIP
CIN
4.82ERA
5.44FIP
9.15K/9
6.18BB/9
1.52WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL UNDER 9.5
-38.1% EV
+100
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-30.0% EV
-192
TOTAL OVER 9.5
+25.7% EV
-122
F5 OVER 5.5
+21.7% EV
+100
ML HOME
-8.9% EV
-120
F5_ML HOME
-6.0% EV
-128
First 5 Innings & NRFI
STL F5
3.7 runs
42.2% win
CIN F5
3.9 runs
47.0% win
F5 Total
7.6
NRFI
43.9%
YRFI
56.1%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.37
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
3.7
Over 0.5 HR
97%
Over 1.5 HR
88%
No HR
3%
Jordan Walker STL30.0%
ISO: 0.278 | Barrel: 16.8% | vs Brady Singer | Park: 1.08x
Alec Burleson STL30.0%
ISO: 0.216 | Barrel: 8.7% | vs Brady Singer | Park: 1.08x Platoon: 1.12x
Bryan Torres STL24.8%
ISO: 0.200 | Barrel: 20.0% | vs Brady Singer | Park: 1.08x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Brycen Mautz
0.0 K projected
STL | K/9: 0.0
Brady Singer
0.0 K projected
CIN | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
STL8 injured
Nathan Church LF10-DAY-IL
Ramon Urias 3B10-DAY-IL
Lars Nootbaar LF60-DAY-IL
Packy Naughton RPDAY-TO-DAY
Sem Robberse SPDAY-TO-DAY
Victor Santos RPDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
CIN8 injured
Ke'Bryan Hayes 3B10-DAY-IL
Rhett Lowder SP15-DAY-IL
Emilio Pagan RP15-DAY-IL
Jose Trevino C10-DAY-IL
Hunter Greene SP60-DAY-IL
Connor Burns CDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -1YELLOW ZONE50.0% WR (n=284)
STL OVER 9.5 shows massive +25.7% edge (model 69.1% vs market ~43%) — appears actionable but OVER market is catastrophically disabled (F grade, -19.9u loss on 70 picks). Respecting system constraint despite apparent edge.
Key Factors
- Brady Singer (CIN SP) Bayesian ERA: 6.76 (bottom-tier), 8.0 K/9, minimal command (B). Brycen Mautz (STL SP) unknown pitcher, no profile data
- Park factor: Great American Ball Park 1.08 (adds 8% runs) — CIN games are inflated naturally
- Weather: 72.5F, 5.4 mph wind BLOWING IN — subtracts 0.3-0.5 runs, offsetting park boost
- OVER market is auto-disabled with F grade (-19.9u on 70 picks) due to systemic failure. This is a system-hard block.
- Model 13.63 total is extreme; market 9.5 is likely more accurate
Risk Factors
- OVER is disabled market (F grade); betting against system restriction is dangerous even with apparent edge
- Model may be hallucinating edge due to Singer's poor ERA and park inflation — does not account for bullpen quality differential
- Mautz profile is missing entirely — suggests late add/bullpen game risk. If Mautz is not a full-game starter, model breaks.
RED ZONESYSTEM RESTRICTIONHIGH EDGE WARNING
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
STL 50.8%
-4.7 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-4.7 pts
Total
9.5
+25.7 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →