STL vs KC prediction for June 21, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects KC 4.4 - STL 4.7. STL is favored with a 50.0% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 9.0. Model projects 9.1 total runs.
KC
4.4
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.0
STL
4.7
Projected Score
Win Probability
KCSTL
+1.5
Run Line (KC)
9.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 49.6% (2,497 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
STL
357
KC
246
Projected
KC 4.4 — STL 4.7
Actual
KC 10 — STL 12
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Dustin May R
STL
FF26%97 mph17% whiff
FC22%93 mph22% whiff
ST20%86 mph34% whiff
Stephen Kolek R
KC
FF28%94 mph17% whiff
SI22%94 mph4% whiff
SL17%86 mph44% whiff
Weather Impact
Kauffman Stadium
82°F17 mph wind
HR: 0.999 Total: 0.995
thin air, 11mph in
Bullpen Comparison
STL
4.30ERA
4.29FIP
8.27K/9
4.08BB/9
1.36WHIP
KC
4.34ERA
5.00FIP
8.61K/9
4.51BB/9
1.45WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-35.2% EV
-161
TOTAL OVER 9.0
-17.0% EV
-104
F5_ML AWAY
-11.4% EV
-135
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-9.8% EV
+134
ML AWAY
-8.3% EV
-123
TOTAL UNDER 9.0
-7.5% EV
-118
First 5 Innings & NRFI
STL F5
2.3 runs
41.4% win
KC F5
2.3 runs
41.9% win
F5 Total
4.6
NRFI
57.2%
YRFI
42.8%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.85
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.6
Over 0.5 HR
92%
Over 1.5 HR
72%
No HR
8%
Alec Burleson STL30.0%
ISO: 0.278 | Barrel: 10.4% | vs Stephen Kolek | Park: 0.96x Platoon: 1.12x
Jordan Walker STL30.0%
ISO: 0.236 | Barrel: 14.7% | vs Stephen Kolek | Park: 0.96x
Blaze Jordan STL23.0%
ISO: 0.192 | Barrel: 19.2% | vs Stephen Kolek | Park: 0.96x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Dustin May
0.0 K projected
STL | K/9: 0.0
Stephen Kolek
0.0 K projected
KC | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
STL7 injured
Sem Robberse SPDAY-TO-DAY
Ryan Fernandez RP15-DAY-IL
Ramon Urias 3B60-DAY-IL
Packy Naughton RPDAY-TO-DAY
Victor Santos RPDAY-TO-DAY
Ixan Henderson SPDAY-TO-DAY
+1 more
KC8 injured
Bobby Witt Jr. SSDAY-TO-DAY
Nick Mears RP15-DAY-IL
Cole Ragans SP60-DAY-IL
Carlos Estevez RP60-DAY-IL
Kris Bubic SP15-DAY-IL
Vinnie Pasquantino 1B10-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRALYELLOW ZONE54.6% WR (n=116)
Parity game (50.0 home win prob) with market fairly pricing near-coin-flip; small edges on both sides (KC +1.6%, STL -1.6%) split into multiple markets suggest model uncertainty. No single actionable edge.
Key Factors
- Both SPs moderate quality (Kolek B- command, May B- stuff) — no mismatch
- KC injuries (Pasquantino, Isbel) impact depth but Witt Jr (star) available
- Kauffman Stadium windy (17.2 mph, -11.1 mph tail) slightly suppresses scoring (-0.5% total mult)
Risk Factors
- Coin flip with dispersed edges across ML/total/F5 — no conviction pathway
NEUTRAL ODDSPARITY GAMEYELLOW ZONE
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
STL 50.0%
-35.2 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-35.2 pts
Total
9.0
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →