STL vs MIA prediction for April 20, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects MIA 3.3 - STL 3.5. MIA is favored with a 50.2% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 6.8 total runs.
MIA
3.3
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
STL
3.5
Projected Score
Win Probability
MIASTL
-1.5
Run Line (MIA)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
STL L5MIA L4
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.6% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
STL
245
MIA
135
Pick Results
Jj Wetherholt OVER 0.5 Strikeoutsbatter_ksWIN+0.86u
Owen Caissie OVER 0.5 Strikeoutsbatter_ksWIN+0.68u
Masyn Winn OVER 0.5 Strikeoutsbatter_ksWIN+0.67u
Jakob Marsee OVER 0.5 Strikeoutsbatter_ksWIN+1.30u
Graham Pauley OVER 0.5 Strikeoutsbatter_ksLOSS-2.00u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Michael McGreevy R
STL
FF26%91 mph10% whiff
CH21%86 mph22% whiff
SI15%90 mph10% whiff
Max Meyer R
MIA
SL29%90 mph52% whiff
ST23%88 mph28% whiff
FF21%95 mph12% whiff
Weather Impact
loanDepot park
74°F14 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.038 Total: 1.021
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
STL
5.38ERA
4.66FIP
7.51K/9
5.30BB/9
1.47WHIP
MIA
3.94ERA
3.51FIP
11.38K/9
5.75BB/9
1.29WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-36.8% EV
-182
TOTAL OVER 8.5
-34.0% EV
-115
F5 UNDER 4.5
+32.3% EV
+104
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
+28.5% EV
-105
NRFI NRFI
+23.0% EV
-102
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-16.1% EV
+150
First 5 Innings & NRFI
STL F5
1.8 runs
40.3% win
MIA F5
1.7 runs
38.9% win
F5 Total
3.5
NRFI
66.0%
YRFI
34.0%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.63
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.1
Over 0.5 HR
88%
Over 1.5 HR
62%
No HR
12%
Jordan Walker STL30.0%
ISO: 0.279 | Barrel: 19.6% | vs Max Meyer | Park: 0.93x
Owen Caissie MIA25.4%
ISO: 0.188 | Barrel: 9.0% | vs Michael McGreevy | Park: 0.93x Platoon: 1.12x
Ramón Urías STL24.1%
ISO: 0.144 | Barrel: 14.4% | vs Max Meyer | Park: 0.93x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Michael McGreevy
0.0 K projected
STL | K/9: 0.0
Max Meyer
0.0 K projected
MIA | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
STL8 injured
Hunter Dobbins SP15-DAY-IL
Matt Pushard RP15-DAY-IL
Packy Naughton RPDAY-TO-DAY
Ixan Henderson SPDAY-TO-DAY
Lars Nootbaar LF60-DAY-IL
Victor Santos RPDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
MIA6 injured
Christopher Morel LF10-DAY-IL
Esteury Ruiz LF10-DAY-IL
Griffin Conine LF10-DAY-IL
Adam Mazur SP60-DAY-IL
Ronny Henriquez RP60-DAY-IL
Jesus Tinoco RPOUT
AI Intelligence Analysis
STRONG BET +1YELLOW ZONE52.0% WR (n=599)
Market massively overpricing at 8.5; model projects 6.77 total (1.73-run edge to under at +28.5%). Max Meyer (4.45 ERA, 22.7% K-rate, B-grade stuff) faces Michael McGreevy (2.69 ERA but weak stuff 0.139, minimal K-upside 17.1%) — weak-arsenal starter limits strikeouts; F5 under 4.5 at +32.3% (64.9% model prob) is elite edge; NRFI at +23% confirms low first-inning scoring.
Key Factors
- Market total 8.5 vs model 6.77 = 1.73-run under edge (+28.5%) — largest under edge on full slate
- McGreevy stuff grades 0.139 (D-tier, weakest on slate) limits K-upside; Meyer's 22.7% K-rate provides hard contact resistance
- F5 under 4.5 at +32.3% edge (model 64.9% prob) is elite sub-5-inning play — execute this tier if full-game under causes concern
- NRFI +23% (model 62.1%) confirms low first-inning offensive output; first-inning pressure relief crucial
Risk Factors
- McGreevy's 2.69 ERA with D-tier stuff (0.139) is unsustainable; if he regresses to true talent (3.8-4.2 ERA), under edge shrinks to ~18%
- Warm weather (73.7F, retractable roof neutral) could allow runs if one team breaks through early; F5 under offers better risk/reward than full-game under
- Total zone (52.0% WR on YELLOW) is median; the 28.5% edge is real but not in confirmed GREEN zone, suggesting some model overconfidence
PITCHER MISMATCHTOTALS VALUEF5 TOTALS VALUENRFI VALUEHIGH EDGE WARNING
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
MIA 50.2%
-16.1 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-16.1 pts
Total
8.5
+28.5 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →