STL vs MIA prediction for April 21, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects MIA 3.1 - STL 3.3. STL is favored with a 50.2% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 6.5 total runs.
MIA
3.1
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
STL
3.3
Projected Score
Win Probability
MIASTL
+1.5
Run Line (MIA)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
STL L5MIA L4
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.6% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
STL
135
MIA
135
Pick Results
Masyn Winn OVER 0.5 Strikeoutsbatter_ksLOSS-1.50u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Dustin May R
STL
FF30%97 mph11% whiff
ST21%86 mph21% whiff
SI18%96 mph13% whiff
Chris Paddack R
MIA
FF29%93 mph18% whiff
CH23%85 mph32% whiff
FC16%86 mph32% whiff
Weather Impact
loanDepot park
75°F14 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.070 Total: 1.040
10mph out
Bullpen Comparison
STL
5.36ERA
4.72FIP
7.36K/9
5.55BB/9
1.49WHIP
MIA
3.88ERA
3.35FIP
11.39K/9
5.45BB/9
1.25WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-40.6% EV
-192
TOTAL OVER 8.5
-38.8% EV
-120
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
+34.3% EV
-102
F5 UNDER 4.5
+24.9% EV
-114
NRFI NRFI
+16.8% EV
-114
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-10.8% EV
+158
First 5 Innings & NRFI
STL F5
1.7 runs
40.8% win
MIA F5
1.6 runs
37.7% win
F5 Total
3.3
NRFI
65.1%
YRFI
34.9%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.66
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.0
Over 0.5 HR
86%
Over 1.5 HR
57%
No HR
14%
Jordan Walker STL30.0%
ISO: 0.266 | Barrel: 18.9% | vs Chris Paddack | Park: 0.93x
Alec Burleson STL30.0%
ISO: 0.196 | Barrel: 8.2% | vs Chris Paddack | Park: 0.93x Platoon: 1.12x
Connor Norby MIA27.6%
ISO: 0.212 | Barrel: 8.0% | vs Dustin May | Park: 0.93x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Dustin May
0.0 K projected
STL | K/9: 0.0
Chris Paddack
0.0 K projected
MIA | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
STL8 injured
Hunter Dobbins SP15-DAY-IL
Matt Pushard RP15-DAY-IL
Packy Naughton RPDAY-TO-DAY
Ixan Henderson SPDAY-TO-DAY
Lars Nootbaar LF60-DAY-IL
Victor Santos RPDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
MIA6 injured
Christopher Morel LF10-DAY-IL
Esteury Ruiz LF10-DAY-IL
Griffin Conine LF10-DAY-IL
Adam Mazur SP60-DAY-IL
Ronny Henriquez RP60-DAY-IL
Jesus Tinoco RPOUT
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -2RED ZONE44.4% WR (n=548)
34.3% UNDER edge (67.8% model prob) is extreme RED ZONE signal. Both pitchers weak (Paddack 6.04 ERA, May 7.54 ERA) suggest runs SHOULD score, contradicting model's extreme under lean.
Key Factors
- 34.3% UNDER edge lands in RED zone (44.4% WR) — most extreme edge on slate, biggest overconfidence signal
- Chris Paddack (MIA, 6.04 ERA) is below-average; Dustin May (STL, 7.54 ERA) is terrible. Both bad pitchers historically allow runs.
- NRFI edge 16.8% also RED zone signal. Park factor 1.04 (10 mph wind out) suggests UP potential, conflicting with model
- Model total 6.45 vs market 8.5 — 2.0 run gap unrealistic given two poor-ERA pitchers
Risk Factors
- 34.3% edge = extreme overconfidence; historical RED zone under (44.4% WR) loses money
- Pitcher quality conflict: weak arms should correlate with OVERS, not extreme UNDERS
- Wind factor (10 mph out) lends toward MORE runs, not fewer
HIGH EDGE WARNINGRED ZONEDATA INTEGRITYPITCHER QUALITY CONFLICT
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
STL 50.2%
-40.6 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-40.6 pts
Total
8.5
+34.3 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →