STL vs MIA prediction for April 22, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects MIA 3.1 - STL 2.7. MIA is favored with a 57.0% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 5.8 total runs.
MIA
3.1
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
STL
2.7
Projected Score
Win Probability
MIASTL
-1.5
Run Line (MIA)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 57.4% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
STL
135
MIA
135
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Kyle Leahy R
STL
FF32%94 mph10% whiff
SI18%94 mph3% whiff
CU14%82 mph22% whiff
Janson Junk R
MIA
FF30%94 mph12% whiff
SL26%86 mph19% whiff
CH19%87 mph33% whiff
Weather Impact
loanDepot park
74°F11 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.067 Total: 1.038
10mph out
Bullpen Comparison
STL
5.36ERA
4.73FIP
7.45K/9
5.61BB/9
1.49WHIP
MIA
3.65ERA
3.24FIP
11.26K/9
5.22BB/9
1.22WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL OVER 8.5
-46.6% EV
-110
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-44.0% EV
-164
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
+39.9% EV
-110
F5 UNDER 4.5
+35.3% EV
-108
NRFI NRFI
+17.3% EV
-115
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-13.2% EV
+136
First 5 Innings & NRFI
STL F5
1.3 runs
32.1% win
MIA F5
1.7 runs
44.5% win
F5 Total
3.0
NRFI
65.8%
YRFI
34.2%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.62
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.7
Over 0.5 HR
81%
Over 1.5 HR
50%
No HR
19%
Ramón Urías STL30.0%
ISO: 0.133 | Barrel: 13.3% | vs Janson Junk | Park: 0.93x
Otto Lopez MIA27.3%
ISO: 0.197 | Barrel: 10.2% | vs Kyle Leahy | Park: 0.93x
JJ Wetherholt STL25.8%
ISO: 0.091 | Barrel: 6.6% | vs Janson Junk | Park: 0.93x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Kyle Leahy
0.0 K projected
STL | K/9: 0.0
Janson Junk
0.0 K projected
MIA | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
STL8 injured
Hunter Dobbins SP15-DAY-IL
Matt Pushard RP15-DAY-IL
Packy Naughton RPDAY-TO-DAY
Ixan Henderson SPDAY-TO-DAY
Lars Nootbaar LF60-DAY-IL
Victor Santos RPDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
MIA6 injured
Christopher Morel LF10-DAY-IL
Esteury Ruiz LF10-DAY-IL
Griffin Conine LF10-DAY-IL
Adam Mazur SP60-DAY-IL
Ronny Henriquez RP60-DAY-IL
Jesus Tinoco RPOUT
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -1GREEN ZONE58.6% WR (n=203)
Both mediocre starters (Junk 4.86 ERA vs Leahy 5.63 ERA) in low-event matchup; model 57% MIA is flat vs market (58.7%), no exploitable directional edge. 39.9% UNDER edge is anomalous for two back-end starters and TOTAL market is disabled Grade C.
Key Factors
- Pitcher mismatch NONE: Junk (4.86 ERA, C+ grade) vs Leahy (5.63 ERA, C grade) — both below-average arms, minimal separating quality (0.77 ERA gap is within noise for season-long pitchers).
- ML edge -2.4%: Market implied 58.7% MIA vs model 57.4%. Flat matchup, no actionable directional advantage. Zone: GREEN home ml (58.6% WR, n=203) is mildly profitable but not enough to overcome 0% edge.
- Bullpen edge marginal: MIA bullpen 3.65 ERA (above-average) vs STL 5.36 ERA (below average), ~0.7 ERA swing helps MIA slightly but model factors this into -2.4% edge.
- Weather neutral: 74.5F, retractable roof closed = neutral baseline. No weather advantage.
- TOTAL edge suspicious: 39.9% UNDER edge contradicts weak pitcher quality. Two C-grade starters should allow 5-6 runs each = 10-12 total projected. Market 8.5 is actually TIGHT for this matchup. TOTAL market is disabled (Grade C, 46.6% WR). Flag overconfidence.
Risk Factors
- Flat edge (<5%) on ML is below actionable threshold (min 5% per calibration).
- TOTAL market disabled — even if simulation edge is real, pipeline won't bet it.
- Model-market divergence on total (39.9% edge is massive; suggests model is overconfident in low-probability zone).
CAUTIONMODEL MARKET CONFLICTTOTALS VALUE
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
MIA 57.0%
-13.2 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-13.2 pts
Total
8.5
+39.9 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →