Who is predicted to win STL vs MIL on May 25, 2026?

Based on 10,000 Pitch Sim v5.3 Monte Carlo simulations, MIL is favored with a 50.6% win probability. The simulation's mean projected score is MIL 4.3 - STL 4.5.

How did STL vs MIL on May 25, 2026 end?

Final score: MIL 5 - STL 1. This page now shows our pre-game projection alongside the actual outcome for transparency — every Olympus Bets projection is preserved with its result.

How does Olympus Bets generate sports predictions?

Every projection is produced by a league-specific Monte Carlo simulation engine (10,000+ iterations per game), Platt-scaled and isotonic-calibrated against historical outcomes, then sized with the Kelly Criterion plus a 15% Bayesian probability shrinkage. The full methodology is documented at https://app.olympus-bets.com/methodology.

STL vs MIL Prediction & Picks — May 25, 2026

STL vs MIL prediction for May 25, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects MIL 4.3 - STL 4.5. MIL is favored with a 50.6% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 8.9 total runs.

MIL

4.3

Projected Score

VS O/U 7.5

STL

4.5

Projected Score

Win Probability

50.6%

49.4%

MILSTL

-1.5

Run Line (MIL)

7.5

Total Line

10,000

Simulations

☑ Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.4% (2,300 games)

Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile

STL

346

MIL

246

Projected

MIL 4.3 — STL 4.5

Actual

MIL 5 — STL 1

Starting Pitcher Matchup

Matthew Liberatore L

STL

FF32%94 mph9% whiff

SL25%86 mph34% whiff

CH16%89 mph22% whiff

Jacob Misiorowski R

MIL

FF61%100 mph40% whiff

SL24%94 mph24% whiff

CU13%87 mph39% whiff

Weather Impact

American Family Field

81°F6 mph windRoof: retractable

HR: 1.016 Total: 1.006

thin air

Bullpen Comparison

STL

4.38ERA

4.36FIP

8.15K/9

4.53BB/9

1.39WHIP

MIL

3.67ERA

3.24FIP

9.66K/9

4.27BB/9

1.34WHIP

Betting Edges

ML AWAY

+31.5% EV

+184

RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5

-27.0% EV

-120

RUN_LINE HOME -1.5

-25.3% EV

+100

ML HOME

-22.2% EV

-222

TOTAL UNDER 7.5

-14.7% EV

-110

F5_ML HOME

-14.2% EV

-233

First 5 Innings & NRFI

STL F5

2.1 runs

35.5% win

MIL F5

2.5 runs

48.3% win

F5 Total

4.6

NRFI

57.4%

YRFI

42.6%

Avg 1st Inn Runs

0.87

HR Spotlight

Avg HRs

1.9

Over 0.5 HR

85%

Over 1.5 HR

58%

No HR

15%

Andrew Vaughn MIL24.6%

ISO: 0.188 | Barrel: 7.4% | vs Matthew Liberatore | Platoon: 1.12x

Brice Turang MIL20.7%

ISO: 0.056 | Barrel: 9.8% | vs Matthew Liberatore

Jordan Walker STL18.0%

ISO: 0.278 | Barrel: 16.8% | vs Jacob Misiorowski

Pitcher Strikeout Projections

Matthew Liberatore

0.0 K projected

STL | K/9: 0.0

Jacob Misiorowski

0.0 K projected

MIL | K/9: 0.0

Injury Report

STL8 injured

Nathan Church LF10-DAY-IL

Ramon Urias 3B10-DAY-IL

Lars Nootbaar LF60-DAY-IL

Packy Naughton RPDAY-TO-DAY

Sem Robberse SPDAY-TO-DAY

Victor Santos RPDAY-TO-DAY

+2 more

MIL8 injured

Logan Henderson SPDAY-TO-DAY

Quinn Priester SP15-DAY-IL

Brandon Woodruff SP15-DAY-IL

Rob Zastryzny RP60-DAY-IL

Jared Koenig RP15-DAY-IL

Brandon Lockridge LF10-DAY-IL

+2 more

AI Intelligence Analysis

NEUTRAL -2RED ZONE44.5% WR (n=165)

DATA_INTEGRITY FAILURE: Model leans STL AWAY +31.5% edge (46.3% model prob) despite Misiorowski (A- pitcher, 0.826 grade, 13.9 K/9, 37.3% K-rate) vs Liberatore (B- pitcher, 0.448 grade, 7.6 K/9). This is bottom-tier starting pitcher vs ace — market correctly prices MIL home favorite at -222 (69% implied). Ace-at-home beats back-end arm; market has it right.

Key Factors

Pitcher reality check: Misiorowski (A- grade, 0.826 overall_score, 13.9 K/9) is ELITE. Liberatore (B- grade, 0.448 overall_score, 7.6 K/9) is pedestrian. This is NOT a close matchup; Misiorowski outclasses.
Market correctly priced MIL -222 (69% implied home win). Model saying STL 46.3% implies market undervaluing STL by 11.1 points — IMPLAUSIBLE when model SP analysis shows clear home ace advantage.
RED zone + away ML: Model recommending away underdog in RED zone (44.5% WR, n=165) — historical money pit.
Post-game validation: Brewers won 5-1 handily. Misiorowski matched career high 12 K, carried no-hitter into 6th. This was not an edge opportunity; home ace crushed weak visitor arm as expected.

Risk Factors

Model disagreement with pitcher-driven market is core issue. When model projects 46.3% win prob AGAINST a -222 favorite, ask: 'Does my simulation know something the market doesn't?' Answer: NO. Misiorowski is clearly elite (A- grade, 13.9 K/9), Liberatore clearly weak (B- grade). Market is right.
Recommending STL away underdog at +184 would be 'fading the ace' play — these routinely underperform.
AWAY RED ZONE + HIGH EDGE = classic data integrity failure pattern.

Sharp MoneyAgainst ModelMarket priced STL +184 (35.2% implied) despite model 46.3% — sharp money (or informed markets) moving AWAY from the edge, signaling distrust.

PITCHER MISMATCHDATA INTEGRITYRED ZONEMODEL MARKET CONFLICTSTRONG AVOID

Edge Analysis

Moneyline

MIL 50.6%

-25.3 pts

Run Line