STL vs MIL prediction for May 26, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects MIL 5.2 - STL 4.8. MIL is favored with a 55.6% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 10.0 total runs.
MIL
5.2
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
STL
4.8
Projected Score
Win Probability
MILSTL
-1.5
Run Line (MIL)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.9% (2,300 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
STL
357
MIL
357
Projected
MIL 5.2 — STL 4.8
Actual
MIL 6 — STL 0
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Michael McGreevy R
STL
FF24%91 mph9% whiff
CH20%86 mph32% whiff
SI17%90 mph9% whiff
Kyle Harrison L
MIL
FF60%95 mph31% whiff
SV26%82 mph30% whiff
CH12%86 mph22% whiff
Weather Impact
American Family Field
85°F9 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.048 Total: 1.024
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
STL
4.41ERA
4.35FIP
8.11K/9
4.55BB/9
1.40WHIP
MIL
3.58ERA
3.22FIP
9.60K/9
4.23BB/9
1.32WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-33.2% EV
-130
TOTAL UNDER 8.0
-27.5% EV
-114
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-14.4% EV
+108
ML AWAY
+13.8% EV
+166
ML HOME
-13.6% EV
-196
F5_ML HOME
-12.0% EV
-196
First 5 Innings & NRFI
STL F5
2.4 runs
37.3% win
MIL F5
2.9 runs
48.6% win
F5 Total
5.2
NRFI
52.7%
YRFI
47.3%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.02
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.5
Over 0.5 HR
92%
Over 1.5 HR
70%
No HR
8%
Brice Turang MIL30.0%
ISO: 0.254 | Barrel: 9.6% | vs Michael McGreevy | Platoon: 1.12x
Jake Bauers MIL30.0%
ISO: 0.193 | Barrel: 9.8% | vs Michael McGreevy | Platoon: 1.12x
Jordan Walker STL28.2%
ISO: 0.342 | Barrel: 16.6% | vs Kyle Harrison | Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Michael McGreevy
0.0 K projected
STL | K/9: 0.0
Kyle Harrison
0.0 K projected
MIL | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
STL8 injured
Ramon Urias 3B10-DAY-IL
Nathan Church LF10-DAY-IL
Lars Nootbaar LF60-DAY-IL
Packy Naughton RPDAY-TO-DAY
Sem Robberse SPDAY-TO-DAY
Victor Santos RPDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
MIL8 injured
Jared Koenig RP15-DAY-IL
Brandon Woodruff SP15-DAY-IL
Logan Henderson SP15-DAY-IL
Quinn Priester SP15-DAY-IL
Rob Zastryzny RP60-DAY-IL
Brandon Lockridge LF10-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
STRONG BET +1RED ZONE43.9% WR (n=169)
Market has STL away as massive underdog at +166 ML (37.6% implied), yet model projects 42.8% STL win prob (+13.8% edge). Kyle Harrison (MIL home, 1.91 ERA, B+ stuff, 31.7% K-rate, elite arm) is BETTER than Michael McGreevy (STL, 2.59 ERA, C+ stuff, 17.9% K-rate), so the market's MIL -196 favorite makes sense fundamentally. However, the 9% pricing gap between market (37.6%) and model (42.8%) suggests the market is OVERVALUING the home field. McGreevy (2.59 ERA) is solid, not trash. Harrison is elite but not unbeatable. Edge is +13.8%, which is HIGH but not elite. Market may be overweighting MIL's home-field and recent success. Going BET with unit 1.0 for the away value play.
Key Factors
- Harrison (MIL): 1.91 ERA, B+ stuff (0.703), 31.7% K-rate — elite performance
- McGreevy (STL): 2.59 ERA, C+ stuff (0.22), 17.9% K-rate — solid starter
- Pitcher gap: 1.91 vs 2.59 = 0.68 ERA, favors MIL but not by huge margin
- Market pricing: MIL -196 = 66.2% implied vs model 57.2% (9% gap)
- Weather: Warm 84.6F (run boost), neutral wind (1.0 mph tail-wind), retractable roof (neutral)
Risk Factors
- Away ML RED zone (43.9% WR) — historical weakness
- Edge +13.8% is high, triggers caution (15%+ edges show 38% WR historically)
- MIL is strong team (recent momentum); public rightfully favoring home
PITCHER MISMATCH SLIGHTAWAY VALUE PLAYRED ZONE AWAY MLHIGH EDGE WARNINGELIGIBLE DUE TO EDGE
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
MIL 55.6%
-14.4 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-14.4 pts
Total
8.0
+8.2 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →