STL vs MIN prediction for June 12, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects MIN 5.3 - STL 4.7. MIN is favored with a 56.1% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 9.0. Model projects 10.1 total runs.
MIN
5.3
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.0
STL
4.7
Projected Score
Win Probability
MINSTL
-1.5
Run Line (MIN)
9.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 57.7% (2,305 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
STL
357
MIN
357
Projected
MIN 5.3 — STL 4.7
Actual
MIN 9 — STL 8
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Kyle Leahy R
STL
FF29%94 mph11% whiff
SL16%89 mph16% whiff
CU16%82 mph27% whiff
Joe Ryan R
MIN
FF44%93 mph22% whiff
ST14%80 mph31% whiff
KC13%78 mph26% whiff
Weather Impact
Target Field
79°F12 mph wind
HR: 0.985 Total: 0.988
thin air, 11mph in
Bullpen Comparison
STL
4.07ERA
4.16FIP
8.27K/9
3.98BB/9
1.33WHIP
MIN
4.92ERA
4.44FIP
8.72K/9
4.56BB/9
1.46WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-39.5% EV
-175
TOTAL UNDER 9.0
-13.1% EV
-115
F5 OVER 4.5
+8.1% EV
-122
F5_ML HOME
-6.3% EV
-167
ML AWAY
-5.0% EV
+116
TOTAL OVER 9.0
+4.3% EV
-105
First 5 Innings & NRFI
STL F5
2.5 runs
36.7% win
MIN F5
3.2 runs
51.0% win
F5 Total
5.8
NRFI
44.3%
YRFI
55.7%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.25
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
3.1
Over 0.5 HR
95%
Over 1.5 HR
82%
No HR
5%
Jordan Walker STL30.0%
ISO: 0.233 | Barrel: 14.9% | vs Joe Ryan | Park: 0.99x
Byron Buxton MIN30.0%
ISO: 0.366 | Barrel: 17.4% | vs Kyle Leahy | Park: 0.99x
Kody Clemens MIN30.0%
ISO: 0.240 | Barrel: 11.5% | vs Kyle Leahy | Park: 0.99x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Kyle Leahy
0.0 K projected
STL | K/9: 0.0
Joe Ryan
0.0 K projected
MIN | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
STL7 injured
Ramon Urias 3B60-DAY-IL
Ryan Fernandez RP15-DAY-IL
Packy Naughton RPDAY-TO-DAY
Sem Robberse SPDAY-TO-DAY
Victor Santos RPDAY-TO-DAY
Ixan Henderson SPDAY-TO-DAY
+1 more
MIN8 injured
Walker Jenkins CFDAY-TO-DAY
David Festa SP60-DAY-IL
Mick Abel SP15-DAY-IL
Kendry Rojas RP15-DAY-IL
Cole Sands RP15-DAY-IL
Ryan Jeffers C10-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRALGREEN ZONE56.6% WR (n=98)
Home slight favorite MIN modestly overpriced by model: Model 56.1% vs market 57.5% (-2.5% ML edge negative). Joe Ryan (3.32 ERA, B 0.605 strong) beats Kyle Leahy (4.77 ERA, C+ 0.381), but edge modest (1.45 ERA gap). F5 edge moderate (+8.1%, 59.4% model). Run line edge marginal (+2.9%, 41.8% model). Totals neutral. Market efficiently priced; no actionable bet at minimum 8% threshold for ML.
Key Factors
- Ryan 3.32 ERA vs Leahy 4.77 ERA (1.45-point gap, B vs C+ grade) — decent mismatch favoring home
- Negative ML edge (-2.5%) despite GREEN home zone suggests market knows something about MIN or STL depth/momentum
- Run line edge weak (+2.9%); totals flat (+4.3%); F5 only notable (+8.1%)
Risk Factors
- Negative ML edge means skip; F5 edges not calibrated in regime
- Market appears more confident in MIN than model; trust market on this game
MODEST PITCHER MISMATCHMARKET EFFICIENTNEGATIVE ML EDGELOW EDGES ACROSS BOARD
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
MIN 56.1%
+2.9 pts
Run Line
-1.5
+2.9 pts
Total
9.0
+4.3 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →