STL vs MIN prediction for June 13, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects MIN 4.4 - STL 4.2. MIN is favored with a 53.5% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 9.0. Model projects 8.7 total runs.
MIN
4.4
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.0
STL
4.2
Projected Score
Win Probability
MINSTL
+1.5
Run Line (MIN)
9.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 57.5% (2,321 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
STL
246
MIN
246
Projected
MIN 4.4 — STL 4.2
Actual
MIN 6 — STL 9
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Matthew Liberatore L
STL
FF33%94 mph10% whiff
SL22%86 mph34% whiff
CU16%79 mph35% whiff
Connor Prielipp L
MIN
SL32%87 mph27% whiff
FF30%95 mph10% whiff
CU16%82 mph30% whiff
Weather Impact
Target Field
72°F14 mph wind
HR: 0.979 Total: 0.985
thin air, 11mph in
Bullpen Comparison
STL
4.21ERA
4.34FIP
8.23K/9
4.01BB/9
1.33WHIP
MIN
5.01ERA
4.43FIP
8.73K/9
4.62BB/9
1.48WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-30.1% EV
-169
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-16.7% EV
+140
TOTAL OVER 9.0
-13.6% EV
-110
ML AWAY
-11.7% EV
-116
F5_ML AWAY
-9.3% EV
-106
TOTAL UNDER 9.0
+4.6% EV
-110
First 5 Innings & NRFI
STL F5
2.3 runs
39.2% win
MIN F5
2.6 runs
45.8% win
F5 Total
4.8
NRFI
53.7%
YRFI
46.3%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.01
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.6
Over 0.5 HR
92%
Over 1.5 HR
73%
No HR
8%
Jordan Walker STL30.0%
ISO: 0.339 | Barrel: 14.8% | vs Connor Prielipp | Park: 0.99x Platoon: 1.12x
Nelson Velázquez STL30.0%
ISO: 0.175 | Barrel: 17.5% | vs Connor Prielipp | Park: 0.99x Platoon: 1.12x
Byron Buxton MIN30.0%
ISO: 0.136 | Barrel: 18.3% | vs Matthew Liberatore | Park: 0.99x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Matthew Liberatore
0.0 K projected
STL | K/9: 0.0
Connor Prielipp
0.0 K projected
MIN | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
STL7 injured
Ramon Urias 3B60-DAY-IL
Ryan Fernandez RP15-DAY-IL
Packy Naughton RPDAY-TO-DAY
Sem Robberse SPDAY-TO-DAY
Victor Santos RPDAY-TO-DAY
Ixan Henderson SPDAY-TO-DAY
+1 more
MIN8 injured
Walker Jenkins CFDAY-TO-DAY
David Festa SP60-DAY-IL
Mick Abel SP15-DAY-IL
Kendry Rojas RP15-DAY-IL
Cole Sands RP15-DAY-IL
Ryan Jeffers C10-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEANYELLOW ZONE50.1% WR (n=184)
Model under 9.0 at 4.6% edge in YELLOW zone (50.1% WR baseline) after Saturday's 9-6 slugfest supports under lean, but weather and pitcher parity create coin-flip risk; lean only on sharp reduction.
Key Factors
- Pitcher quality parity: Liberatore 4.84 ERA vs Prielipp 5.56 ERA—both mid-tier, 0.72 ERA gap is meaningful but not massive (ace-vs-back-end tier gap)
- Weather: 72.2F, 11 mph wind blowing IN = slight under bias, reduces total projection ~0.3 runs
- NRFI edge 2.0% (model 51.5%) suggests tight first inning, moderate scoring velocity overall
- Saturday's 9-6 game is recency bias trap—over long samples, STL-MIN is league-average park (1.0x factor)
- Under 9.0 at 4.6% edge is marginal; YELLOW zone totals historically underperform even with positive edge
Risk Factors
- Recent 9-6 Cardinals win may have inflated public over bets; sharp money may have already adjusted lines
- Neither pitcher has elite strikeout stuff (both 8.0 K/9 simmed)—run scoring could accelerate midgame
- Slight weather advantage (wind in) already reflected in market total likely, reducing true edge
PITCHER PARITYNRFI VALUEWEATHER NEUTRAL
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
MIN 53.5%
-30.1 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-30.1 pts
Total
9.0
+4.6 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →