STL vs MIN prediction for June 14, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects MIN 5.5 - STL 5.3. MIN is favored with a 52.6% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 9.5. Model projects 10.8 total runs.
MIN
5.5
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.5
STL
5.3
Projected Score
Win Probability
MINSTL
+1.5
Run Line (MIN)
9.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 57.5% (2,331 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
STL
357
MIN
467
Projected
MIN 5.5 — STL 5.3
Actual
MIN 5 — STL 4
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Michael McGreevy R
STL
FF25%91 mph10% whiff
CH20%87 mph32% whiff
SI17%90 mph11% whiff
Taj Bradley R
MIN
FF48%97 mph12% whiff
FC22%89 mph34% whiff
FS19%91 mph40% whiff
Weather Impact
Target Field
68°F14 mph wind
HR: 1.018 Total: 1.008
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
STL
4.23ERA
4.33FIP
8.21K/9
4.09BB/9
1.34WHIP
MIN
5.12ERA
4.56FIP
8.73K/9
4.60BB/9
1.49WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-28.7% EV
-175
TOTAL UNDER 9.5
-15.8% EV
-123
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-11.4% EV
+146
TOTAL OVER 9.5
+8.0% EV
+102
F5 OVER 4.5
+7.5% EV
-145
ML AWAY
-5.9% EV
-102
First 5 Innings & NRFI
STL F5
3.0 runs
42.1% win
MIN F5
3.2 runs
45.7% win
F5 Total
6.1
NRFI
45.1%
YRFI
54.9%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.31
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
3.1
Over 0.5 HR
95%
Over 1.5 HR
82%
No HR
5%
Jordan Walker STL30.0%
ISO: 0.245 | Barrel: 15.2% | vs Taj Bradley | Park: 0.99x
Byron Buxton MIN30.0%
ISO: 0.384 | Barrel: 18.8% | vs Michael McGreevy | Park: 0.99x
Kody Clemens MIN30.0%
ISO: 0.253 | Barrel: 11.8% | vs Michael McGreevy | Park: 0.99x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Michael McGreevy
0.0 K projected
STL | K/9: 0.0
Taj Bradley
0.0 K projected
MIN | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
STL7 injured
Ramon Urias 3B60-DAY-IL
Ryan Fernandez RP15-DAY-IL
Packy Naughton RPDAY-TO-DAY
Sem Robberse SPDAY-TO-DAY
Victor Santos RPDAY-TO-DAY
Ixan Henderson SPDAY-TO-DAY
+1 more
MIN8 injured
Walker Jenkins CFDAY-TO-DAY
David Festa SP60-DAY-IL
Mick Abel SP15-DAY-IL
Kendry Rojas RP15-DAY-IL
Cole Sands RP15-DAY-IL
Ryan Jeffers C10-DAY-IL
+2 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
MIN 52.6%
-28.7 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-28.7 pts
Total
9.5
+8.0 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →