STL vs NYM prediction for June 9, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects NYM 3.9 - STL 4.5. STL is favored with a 53.3% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 8.4 total runs.
NYM
3.9
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
STL
4.5
Projected Score
Win Probability
NYMSTL
-1.5
Run Line (NYM)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 57.6% (2,249 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
STL
346
NYM
246
Projected
NYM 3.9 — STL 4.5
Actual
NYM 0 — STL 7
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Dustin May R
STL
FF26%97 mph16% whiff
FC23%93 mph21% whiff
ST20%86 mph34% whiff
Freddy Peralta R
NYM
FF54%94 mph19% whiff
CH24%87 mph27% whiff
CU11%80 mph31% whiff
Weather Impact
Citi Field
69°F13 mph wind
HR: 1.076 Total: 1.044
12mph out
Bullpen Comparison
STL
4.17ERA
4.22FIP
8.28K/9
4.16BB/9
1.37WHIP
NYM
3.55ERA
3.79FIP
9.14K/9
3.65BB/9
1.24WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-31.0% EV
-200
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-16.4% EV
+164
F5_ML HOME
-15.3% EV
-132
ML HOME
-14.4% EV
-130
TOTAL UNDER 7.5
-8.6% EV
+100
ML AWAY
+8.4% EV
+110
First 5 Innings & NRFI
STL F5
2.4 runs
45.0% win
NYM F5
2.1 runs
38.5% win
F5 Total
4.5
NRFI
53.7%
YRFI
46.3%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.97
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.1
Over 0.5 HR
87%
Over 1.5 HR
60%
No HR
13%
Jared Young NYM20.2%
ISO: 0.244 | Barrel: 12.5% | vs Dustin May | Park: 0.96x Platoon: 1.12x
Juan Soto NYM19.6%
ISO: 0.294 | Barrel: 14.5% | vs Dustin May | Park: 0.96x Platoon: 1.12x
Jordan Walker STL18.3%
ISO: 0.240 | Barrel: 14.8% | vs Freddy Peralta | Park: 0.96x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Dustin May
0.0 K projected
STL | K/9: 0.0
Freddy Peralta
0.0 K projected
NYM | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
STL7 injured
Ramon Urias 3B10-DAY-IL
Ryan Fernandez RP15-DAY-IL
Packy Naughton RPDAY-TO-DAY
Sem Robberse SPDAY-TO-DAY
Victor Santos RPDAY-TO-DAY
Ixan Henderson SPDAY-TO-DAY
+1 more
NYM8 injured
Francisco Lindor SS10-DAY-IL
Kodai Senga SP15-DAY-IL
Tyrone Taylor CF10-DAY-IL
Jorge Polanco 1B10-DAY-IL
Brandon Waddell RPDAY-TO-DAY
Adbert Alzolay RPDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1YELLOW ZONE48.5% WR (n=216)
Dustin May (4.96 ERA, B- grade, stuff 0.343) is weaker than Freddy Peralta (3.92 ERA, B- grade, command 0.445); model projects STL +8.4% ML edge as away underdog, supported by 12.4 mph OUT wind at Citi Field and May's ERA weakness, but away ML historically weak (45.3% WR combo), limiting conviction.
Key Factors
- Pitcher weak point: May 4.96 ERA (B- grade, stuff 0.343, command 0.672) vs Peralta 3.92 ERA (B-, stuff 0.457, command 0.445); May's ERA is weak point
- 12.4 mph out wind at Citi Field: One of strongest wind scenarios on slate; aids away team's scoring chance by ~0.5 runs
- Away side weakness: combo|away|underdog 41.7% WR historically; need to overcome this inherent disadvantage
- 8.4% edge in reliable bucket: 5-10% edge bucket shows 55% WR (above breakeven)
Risk Factors
- Away ML red zone: combo|ml|any|away shows 45.3% historical WR, below breakeven; May be fighting structural disadvantage
- Peralta's command advantage: 0.445 command vs May's 0.672 (May worse); Peralta more precise
- Cold weather (69F): Slightly suppresses offense, benefiting both teams equally
PITCHER MISMATCHWEATHER IMPACT
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
STL 53.3%
-16.4 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-16.4 pts
Total
7.5
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →