STL vs NYM prediction for June 10, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects NYM 3.9 - STL 3.4. NYM is favored with a 55.6% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 7.3 total runs.
NYM
3.9
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
STL
3.4
Projected Score
Win Probability
NYMSTL
-1.5
Run Line (NYM)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 58.6% (2,257 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
STL
135
NYM
246
Projected
NYM 3.9 — STL 3.4
Actual
NYM 2 — STL 9
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Andre Pallante R
STL
FF30%95 mph14% whiff
SL29%88 mph31% whiff
SI19%95 mph11% whiff
Austin Warren R
NYM
ST50%85 mph22% whiff
SI20%94 mph12% whiff
FF15%94 mph47% whiff
Weather Impact
Citi Field
77°F11 mph wind
HR: 1.083 Total: 1.046
11mph out
Bullpen Comparison
STL
4.11ERA
4.17FIP
8.29K/9
4.10BB/9
1.36WHIP
NYM
3.55ERA
3.77FIP
9.05K/9
3.60BB/9
1.24WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-42.1% EV
-179
TOTAL OVER 8.5
-21.0% EV
-102
F5 UNDER 4.5
+15.5% EV
-114
F5_ML AWAY
-13.6% EV
+106
NRFI NRFI
+13.1% EV
+102
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
+10.0% EV
-120
First 5 Innings & NRFI
STL F5
1.6 runs
32.4% win
NYM F5
2.1 runs
47.2% win
F5 Total
3.6
NRFI
61.2%
YRFI
38.8%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.77
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.9
Over 0.5 HR
84%
Over 1.5 HR
57%
No HR
16%
Juan Soto NYM30.0%
ISO: 0.287 | Barrel: 14.3% | vs Andre Pallante | Park: 0.96x Platoon: 1.12x
Jared Young NYM30.0%
ISO: 0.226 | Barrel: 11.7% | vs Andre Pallante | Park: 0.96x Platoon: 1.12x
Jordan Walker STL20.3%
ISO: 0.240 | Barrel: 14.7% | vs Austin Warren | Park: 0.96x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Andre Pallante
0.0 K projected
STL | K/9: 0.0
Austin Warren
0.0 K projected
NYM | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
STL7 injured
Ramon Urias 3B10-DAY-IL
Ryan Fernandez RP15-DAY-IL
Packy Naughton RPDAY-TO-DAY
Sem Robberse SPDAY-TO-DAY
Victor Santos RPDAY-TO-DAY
Ixan Henderson SPDAY-TO-DAY
+1 more
NYM8 injured
Jorge Polanco 1B10-DAY-IL
Francisco Lindor SS10-DAY-IL
Kodai Senga SP15-DAY-IL
Tyrone Taylor CF10-DAY-IL
Brandon Waddell RPDAY-TO-DAY
Adbert Alzolay RPDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEANYELLOW ZONE55.5% WR (n=20)
Under thesis: Market total 8.5, model 7.31 (1.19 run gap favors unders). Austin Warren (2.17 ERA, B- grade) dominant vs Pallante (4.28 ERA, B- grade). Model 60.1% UNDER 8.5 = +10% edge. NRFI also +13.1% edge (61.2% model) suggests low early scoring. BUT: Market disabled UNDER (44.5% WR, grade F). Recommend F5 UNDER 4.5 (+15.5% edge) instead.
Key Factors
- SP mismatch favors NYM HOME: Warren (2.17 ERA, B- grade, 25.3% K) is ELITE vs Pallante (4.28 ERA, B- grade, 18.6% K). 2.1 ERA gap significant.
- 1.19 run gap on unders: Model 7.31 vs market 8.5 suggests low-run environment underestimated by market.
- F5 UNDER +15.5%: Model 61.4% vs market ~45% — CLEANEST PLAY. Early inning suppression clear (Warren's stuff + Pallante's weakness).
- NRFI +13.1%: Model 56% NRFI (scoreless first) vs market ~50%. Indicates cautious early approach by both offenses.
Risk Factors
- Market disabled UNDER (44.5% WR, n=240, grade F) — avoid full-game unders despite +10% edge. UNDER historically fails.
- F5 UNDER 4.5 (+15.5% edge) is alternative with better historical support (F5_TOTAL enabled, 53.8% WR, grade B).
- NYM strong lineup (Juan Soto power) — could exceed 8.5 total even with Pallante.
PITCHER MISMATCHHIGH EDGE WARNINGRED ZONEDATA INTEGRITY
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
NYM 55.6%
-4.5 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-4.5 pts
Total
8.5
+10.0 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →