STL vs NYM prediction for June 11, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects NYM 5.4 - STL 4.0. NYM is favored with a 64.4% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 9.0. Model projects 9.4 total runs.
NYM
5.4
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.0
STL
4.0
Projected Score
Win Probability
NYMSTL
-1.5
Run Line (NYM)
9.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 62.6% (2,284 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
STL
246
NYM
357
Projected
NYM 5.4 — STL 4.0
Actual
NYM 5 — STL 4
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Hunter Dobbins R
STL
FF33%96 mph9% whiff
SL17%89 mph25% whiff
ST14%83 mph17% whiff
Christian Scott R
NYM
FF51%96 mph19% whiff
ST24%81 mph29% whiff
FC17%89 mph14% whiff
Weather Impact
Citi Field
95°F9 mph wind
HR: 1.014 Total: 1.005
thin air, 6mph in
Bullpen Comparison
STL
4.06ERA
4.16FIP
8.26K/9
4.05BB/9
1.34WHIP
NYM
3.58ERA
3.79FIP
9.09K/9
3.59BB/9
1.24WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-47.3% EV
-172
F5_ML AWAY
-22.4% EV
+120
ML AWAY
-16.7% EV
+124
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
+12.9% EV
+142
F5_ML HOME
+8.1% EV
-149
TOTAL OVER 9.0
-5.7% EV
-105
First 5 Innings & NRFI
STL F5
2.2 runs
28.7% win
NYM F5
3.5 runs
59.1% win
F5 Total
5.7
NRFI
47.4%
YRFI
52.6%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.19
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
3.3
Over 0.5 HR
96%
Over 1.5 HR
84%
No HR
4%
Juan Soto NYM30.0%
ISO: 0.280 | Barrel: 18.1% | vs Hunter Dobbins | Park: 0.96x Platoon: 1.12x
Jared Young NYM30.0%
ISO: 0.232 | Barrel: 14.3% | vs Hunter Dobbins | Park: 0.96x Platoon: 1.12x
Carson Benge NYM30.0%
ISO: 0.102 | Barrel: 10.2% | vs Hunter Dobbins | Park: 0.96x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Hunter Dobbins
0.0 K projected
STL | K/9: 0.0
Christian Scott
0.0 K projected
NYM | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
STL7 injured
Ramon Urias 3B10-DAY-IL
Ryan Fernandez RP15-DAY-IL
Packy Naughton RPDAY-TO-DAY
Sem Robberse SPDAY-TO-DAY
Victor Santos RPDAY-TO-DAY
Ixan Henderson SPDAY-TO-DAY
+1 more
NYM8 injured
Kodai Senga SP15-DAY-IL
Jorge Polanco 1B10-DAY-IL
Francisco Lindor SS10-DAY-IL
Tyrone Taylor CF10-DAY-IL
Brandon Waddell RPDAY-TO-DAY
Adbert Alzolay RPDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1YELLOW ZONE53.6% WR (n=5)
Both starters are quality (Scott 2.7 ERA, Dobbins 2.99 ERA, both B- grade), but NYM's Scott has superior stuff (B-/C+ vs C+/B-), home field, and market slightly underprice NYM's directional lean (model 62.8% vs market -147 implying 59.5%). The 5.6% edge is modest but real, and the GREEN home ML combo (60.5% WR) validates the directional call.
Key Factors
- Two-ace matchup lean to NYM: Scott 2.7 ERA, 26.3% K rate (B-/C+) vs Dobbins 2.99 ERA, 26.4% K rate (B-/C+); Scott's lower ERA and home field = 0.29-run advantage
- Home ML combo is GREEN: 60.5% WR on home ML bets validates directional call despite modest 5.6% edge
- Market pricing discount: -147 implies 59.5%, but model sees 62.8%; 3.3% gap suggests sharp money hasn't fully loaded NYM yet
- Hot weather (95F) should favor overs, but strong pitching suppresses: Model 9.42 vs market 9.0 total is nearly aligned, suggesting market correctly factored elite arms
Risk Factors
- Zone is YELLOW, small sample: 53.6% WR on 5-10% edge home ML bets (n=5) has high variance; broader zone is more reliable
- Two-ace games are historically lower-scoring with higher variance: Even with 62.8% model prob, games this tight often break 50-50 in real execution
PITCHER PARITYML VALUEGREEN ZONE
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
NYM 64.4%
+12.9 pts
Run Line
-1.5
+12.9 pts
Total
9.0
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →