STL vs OAK prediction for May 12, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects OAK 3.4 - STL 3.2. OAK is favored with a 54.2% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 10.0. Model projects 6.6 total runs.
OAK
3.4
Projected Score
VS
O/U 10.0
STL
3.2
Projected Score
Win Probability
OAKSTL
-1.5
Run Line (OAK)
10.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.6% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
STL
135
OAK
135
Projected
OAK 3.4 — STL 3.2
Actual
OAK 4 — STL 6
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Andre Pallante R
STL
FF30%95 mph13% whiff
SL27%87 mph33% whiff
SI20%95 mph13% whiff
Jeffrey Springs L
OAK
FF42%91 mph12% whiff
SL25%83 mph26% whiff
CH21%79 mph45% whiff
Weather Impact
Oakland Coliseum
58°F8 mph wind
HR: 0.971 Total: 0.982
7mph in
Bullpen Comparison
STL
4.63ERA
4.32FIP
8.09K/9
4.66BB/9
1.41WHIP
OAK
4.13ERA
4.09FIP
9.01K/9
4.61BB/9
1.40WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL OVER 10.0
-53.8% EV
-102
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-39.6% EV
-156
TOTAL UNDER 10.0
+34.4% EV
-120
F5 UNDER 5.5
+34.2% EV
-120
NRFI NRFI
+25.7% EV
+120
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-17.3% EV
+130
First 5 Innings & NRFI
STL F5
1.6 runs
36.3% win
OAK F5
1.8 runs
42.0% win
F5 Total
3.4
NRFI
62.1%
YRFI
38.0%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.71
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.8
Over 0.5 HR
83%
Over 1.5 HR
53%
No HR
17%
Jordan Walker STL30.0%
ISO: 0.355 | Barrel: 16.0% | vs Jeffrey Springs | Park: 0.94x Platoon: 1.12x
Shea Langeliers OAK30.0%
ISO: 0.278 | Barrel: 16.2% | vs Andre Pallante | Park: 0.94x
Carlos Cortes OAK26.6%
ISO: 0.212 | Barrel: 10.7% | vs Andre Pallante | Park: 0.94x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Andre Pallante
0.0 K projected
STL | K/9: 0.0
Jeffrey Springs
0.0 K projected
OAK | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
STL8 injured
Matt Pushard RP15-DAY-IL
Sem Robberse SPDAY-TO-DAY
Lars Nootbaar LF60-DAY-IL
Victor Santos RPDAY-TO-DAY
Ixan Henderson SPDAY-TO-DAY
Ramon Urias 3B10-DAY-IL
+2 more
OAK4 injured
Jacob Wilson SS10-DAY-IL
Denzel Clarke CF10-DAY-IL
Gunnar Hoglund SP60-DAY-IL
Max Muncy 3B10-DAY-IL
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
OAK 54.2%
-17.3 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-17.3 pts
Total
10.0
+34.4 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →