STL vs OAK prediction for May 13, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects OAK 3.9 - STL 4.1. OAK is favored with a 50.1% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 10.0. Model projects 8.0 total runs.
OAK
3.9
Projected Score
VS
O/U 10.0
STL
4.1
Projected Score
Win Probability
OAKSTL
-1.5
Run Line (OAK)
10.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.6% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
STL
246
OAK
246
Projected
OAK 3.9 — STL 4.1
Actual
OAK 6 — STL 2
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Matthew Liberatore L
STL
FF34%94 mph9% whiff
SL25%86 mph33% whiff
CH17%88 mph22% whiff
J.T. Ginn R
OAK
SI35%94 mph22% whiff
FC17%91 mph15% whiff
CH17%88 mph35% whiff
Weather Impact
Oakland Coliseum
64°F9 mph wind
HR: 0.972 Total: 0.983
7mph in
Bullpen Comparison
STL
4.57ERA
4.37FIP
8.05K/9
4.65BB/9
1.40WHIP
OAK
4.14ERA
4.12FIP
9.01K/9
4.54BB/9
1.39WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL OVER 10.0
-38.6% EV
-105
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-33.4% EV
-156
NRFI NRFI
+20.8% EV
+124
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-20.2% EV
+130
TOTAL UNDER 10.0
+19.9% EV
-115
F5 UNDER 5.5
+15.7% EV
-125
First 5 Innings & NRFI
STL F5
2.2 runs
39.3% win
OAK F5
2.3 runs
43.8% win
F5 Total
4.4
NRFI
58.0%
YRFI
42.0%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.84
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.5
Over 0.5 HR
92%
Over 1.5 HR
71%
No HR
8%
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Matthew Liberatore
0.0 K projected
STL | K/9: 0.0
J.T. Ginn
0.0 K projected
OAK | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
STL8 injured
Lars Nootbaar LF60-DAY-IL
Matt Pushard RP15-DAY-IL
Sem Robberse SPDAY-TO-DAY
Victor Santos RPDAY-TO-DAY
Ixan Henderson SPDAY-TO-DAY
Ramon Urias 3B10-DAY-IL
+2 more
OAK5 injured
Max Muncy 3B10-DAY-IL
Denzel Clarke CF10-DAY-IL
Brooks Kriske RPDAY-TO-DAY
Jacob Wilson SS10-DAY-IL
Gunnar Hoglund SP60-DAY-IL
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1YELLOW ZONE50.4% WR (n=252)
J.T. Ginn (3.91 ERA, B-, decent stuff) vs Matthew Liberatore (4.40 ERA, C+, weak stuff) with massive model-projected run suppression (8.04 vs 10.0 market) creates +19.9% UNDER edge (64.1% model prob). F5 UNDER +15.7%, NRFI +20.8% all align; this is a high-conviction UNDER despite YELLOW zone on totals.
Key Factors
- Pitcher matchup: Ginn 3.91 ERA (B-, decent stuff) vs Liberatore 4.40 ERA (C+, weak stuff 0.202)
- UNDER edge: +19.9% (model 64.1% under vs market 32% for under); 1.96 run gap on 10.0 total is elite-level
- NRFI: +20.8% edge (53.9% prob); both starters dominating, no early runs likely
- F5 UNDER: +15.7% edge (64.3% model prob); early inning pitcher advantage strong
- Weather: 64°F, 7 mph in, park factor 1.0 (neutral); all conditions support low-scoring game
Risk Factors
- Elite edge (19.9%+) has worst track record historically (36.4% WR in 15-25% bucket); regression likely
- YELLOW zone on totals (50.4% WR) — betting totals is unreliable; expect lower-than-modeled win rate
- 10.0 total is unusually high; market may have good reason for overline (team-specific trends we're not seeing)
ELITE UNDER EDGEF5 EDGENRFI EDGEWEATHER IMPACTMARKET OVERLINEHIGH EDGE WARNING
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
OAK 50.1%
-20.2 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-20.2 pts
Total
10.0
+19.9 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →