STL vs PIT prediction for April 29, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects PIT 3.3 - STL 3.9. STL is favored with a 55.3% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 7.2 total runs.
PIT
3.3
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
STL
3.9
Projected Score
Win Probability
PITSTL
-1.5
Run Line (PIT)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.6% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
STL
246
PIT
135
Projected
PIT 3.3 — STL 3.9
Actual
PIT 4 — STL 5
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Andre Pallante R
STL
FF30%95 mph16% whiff
SL27%87 mph36% whiff
SI20%95 mph13% whiff
Bubba Chandler R
PIT
FF56%99 mph19% whiff
CH19%92 mph28% whiff
SL12%90 mph21% whiff
Weather Impact
PNC Park
60°F9 mph wind
HR: 1.010 Total: 1.004
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
STL
5.15ERA
4.42FIP
7.89K/9
4.93BB/9
1.44WHIP
PIT
3.60ERA
4.00FIP
9.80K/9
4.42BB/9
1.33WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-31.3% EV
-192
TOTAL OVER 8.5
-27.9% EV
-114
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-23.5% EV
+160
F5_ML HOME
-21.3% EV
-132
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
+19.6% EV
-106
ML HOME
-16.9% EV
-132
First 5 Innings & NRFI
STL F5
2.3 runs
47.7% win
PIT F5
1.8 runs
33.9% win
F5 Total
4.1
NRFI
58.1%
YRFI
41.9%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.84
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.8
Over 0.5 HR
82%
Over 1.5 HR
53%
No HR
18%
JJ Wetherholt STL30.0%
ISO: 0.212 | Barrel: 11.2% | vs Bubba Chandler | Park: 0.95x Platoon: 1.12x
Jordan Walker STL30.0%
ISO: 0.208 | Barrel: 15.2% | vs Bubba Chandler | Park: 0.95x
Brandon Lowe PIT30.0%
ISO: 0.358 | Barrel: 15.7% | vs Andre Pallante | Park: 0.95x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Andre Pallante
0.0 K projected
STL | K/9: 0.0
Bubba Chandler
0.0 K projected
PIT | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
STL8 injured
Hunter Dobbins SP15-DAY-IL
Matt Pushard RP15-DAY-IL
Packy Naughton RPDAY-TO-DAY
Ixan Henderson SPDAY-TO-DAY
Lars Nootbaar LF60-DAY-IL
Victor Santos RPDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
PIT7 injured
Jared Jones SP60-DAY-IL
Jared Triolo SS10-DAY-IL
Sean Sullivan SPDAY-TO-DAY
Dominic Fletcher RFDAY-TO-DAY
Anthony Solometo SPDAY-TO-DAY
Mike Clevinger RPDAY-TO-DAY
+1 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
STL 55.3%
-23.5 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-23.5 pts
Total
8.5
+19.6 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →