STL vs SD prediction for May 7, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects SD 4.2 - STL 3.8. SD is favored with a 55.4% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 8.0 total runs.
SD
4.2
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
STL
3.8
Projected Score
Win Probability
SDSTL
-1.5
Run Line (SD)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
STL L5SD W4
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.6% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
STL
246
SD
246
Projected
SD 4.2 — STL 3.8
Actual
SD 1 — STL 2
Pick Results
Jordan Walker OVER 0.5 Runs Scoredbatter_runsWIN+1.55u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Matthew Liberatore L
STL
FF34%94 mph9% whiff
SL26%86 mph33% whiff
CH16%88 mph23% whiff
Michael King R
SD
SI28%93 mph10% whiff
CH27%86 mph26% whiff
ST20%82 mph28% whiff
Weather Impact
PETCO Park
64°F5 mph wind
HR: 0.993 Total: 0.995
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
STL
4.86ERA
4.40FIP
7.85K/9
4.90BB/9
1.49WHIP
SD
4.17ERA
3.78FIP
8.13K/9
3.44BB/9
1.30WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-37.9% EV
-149
TOTAL OVER 8.0
-17.0% EV
-110
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-11.8% EV
+125
F5_ML HOME
-10.6% EV
-172
ML HOME
-10.3% EV
-172
ML AWAY
+5.4% EV
+144
First 5 Innings & NRFI
STL F5
2.1 runs
37.2% win
SD F5
2.5 runs
46.1% win
F5 Total
4.6
NRFI
59.0%
YRFI
41.0%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.85
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.4
Over 0.5 HR
91%
Over 1.5 HR
68%
No HR
9%
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Matthew Liberatore
0.0 K projected
STL | K/9: 0.0
Michael King
0.0 K projected
SD | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
STL8 injured
Nathan Church LFDAY-TO-DAY
Ramon Urias 3B10-DAY-IL
Matt Pushard RP15-DAY-IL
Lars Nootbaar LF60-DAY-IL
Packy Naughton RPDAY-TO-DAY
Ixan Henderson SPDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
SD8 injured
Jake Cronenworth 2B7-DAY IL
Will Wagner 3B10-DAY-IL
German Marquez SP15-DAY-IL
Bryan Hoeing RP60-DAY-IL
Nick Pivetta SP15-DAY-IL
Joe Musgrove SP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRALYELLOW ZONE50.7% WR (n=234)
Michael King (3.19 ERA, B-) vs Matthew Liberatore (4.86 ERA, C+ weak stuff 0.163) projects home advantage, but AWAY ML edge 5.4% and all other edges below 8% threshold; Petco park suppression (-12%) priced into market.
Key Factors
- King (3.19 ERA, B-, stuff 0.444) vs Liberatore (4.86 ERA, C+, stuff 0.163 weak) — 1.67 ERA gap favors SD
- Petco park -12% suppression (0.99 HR mult, 0.995 total mult) likely priced into 8.0 total
- AWAY ML edge 5.4% below 8% threshold; NRFI 4.5% also below threshold
- Pitcher advantage priced; no ML value for either side
Risk Factors
- Liberatore weak stuff (0.163) could be exploited by SD lineup despite park suppression
- STL road underdog at -144 (reversal) suggests market sees hidden value
WEAK EDGE SIZEPARK SUPPRESSION PRICED
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
SD 55.4%
-11.8 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-11.8 pts
Total
8.0
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →