STL vs SD prediction for May 8, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects SD 3.3 - STL 3.5. STL is favored with a 50.7% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 6.8 total runs.
SD
3.3
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
STL
3.5
Projected Score
Win Probability
SDSTL
-1.5
Run Line (SD)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.6% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
STL
245
SD
135
Projected
SD 3.3 — STL 3.5
Actual
SD 0 — STL 6
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Michael McGreevy R
STL
FF26%91 mph8% whiff
CH21%86 mph27% whiff
SI15%90 mph10% whiff
Griffin Canning R
SD
FF34%94 mph17% whiff
SL31%88 mph34% whiff
CH24%89 mph24% whiff
Weather Impact
PETCO Park
65°F6 mph wind
HR: 0.993 Total: 0.995
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
STL
4.76ERA
4.33FIP
7.88K/9
4.79BB/9
1.46WHIP
SD
4.14ERA
3.80FIP
8.08K/9
3.57BB/9
1.32WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-34.9% EV
-172
TOTAL OVER 8.0
-33.4% EV
-105
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-22.2% EV
+142
F5_ML HOME
-15.3% EV
-139
F5 UNDER 4.5
+15.1% EV
-128
ML HOME
-13.7% EV
-147
First 5 Innings & NRFI
STL F5
1.9 runs
41.9% win
SD F5
1.7 runs
37.5% win
F5 Total
3.6
NRFI
64.0%
YRFI
36.0%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.69
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.0
Over 0.5 HR
86%
Over 1.5 HR
59%
No HR
14%
Jordan Walker STL30.0%
ISO: 0.257 | Barrel: 16.0% | vs Griffin Canning | Park: 0.90x
Alec Burleson STL30.0%
ISO: 0.239 | Barrel: 9.6% | vs Griffin Canning | Park: 0.90x Platoon: 1.12x
JJ Wetherholt STL30.0%
ISO: 0.211 | Barrel: 9.2% | vs Griffin Canning | Park: 0.90x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Michael McGreevy
0.0 K projected
STL | K/9: 0.0
Griffin Canning
0.0 K projected
SD | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
STL8 injured
Sem Robberse SPDAY-TO-DAY
Lars Nootbaar LF60-DAY-IL
Victor Santos RPDAY-TO-DAY
Matt Pushard RP15-DAY-IL
Ixan Henderson SPDAY-TO-DAY
Ramon Urias 3B10-DAY-IL
+2 more
SD8 injured
Jhony Brito RP60-DAY-IL
German Marquez SP15-DAY-IL
Blake Hunt CDAY-TO-DAY
Jake Cronenworth 2B7-DAY IL
Joe Musgrove SP60-DAY-IL
Yu Darvish SPOUT
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1YELLOW ZONE56.3% WR (n=11)
Dual UNDER edges: (+12.5% total at 60.1% model, +15.1% F5 under at 64.7% model) justified by home pitcher advantage (Griffin Canning 1.94 ERA, B- grade, elite ERA vs McGreevy 2.72 ERA C+ stuff) + Petco park suppression (0.9 factor) + cold weather (65F, 6mph neutral wind = 0.995 multiplier) + quiet first innings (NRFI 61.4%, +8.7% edge).
Key Factors
- Home pitcher elite: Canning 1.94 ERA (B- grade, 22.3% K, 10.9% BB control) — lowest ERA on slate, exceptional value for run suppression
- Away pitcher competent but weaker: McGreevy 2.72 ERA (C+, 17.7% K, 4.9% BB) — solid but not elite
- Petco park suppression powerful: 0.9 factor = 10-12% run reduction; fundamental structural advantage for unders at SD home
- Cold weather additive: 65F + neutral wind = 0.995 multiplier; removes 0.1 runs from baseline
- First 5 dominant: Model 3.58 F5 (64.7% under at +15.1% edge) cleaner than full-game; early-inning quiet favors F5 UNDER 4.5
Risk Factors
- RED zone UNDER historical weakness (43.4% WR) despite strong fundamentals; caution warranted
- Canning's 1.94 ERA may be unsustainable; young arm could regress
- Cold weather benefit may be priced in by sharp bettors aware of Petco dynamics
UNDER VALUEELITE HOME PITCHERPETCO PARK SUPPRESSIONCOLD WEATHER MODIFIERFIRST 5 SUPERIORYELLOW ZONE
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
STL 50.7%
-22.2 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-22.2 pts
Total
8.0
+12.5 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →