FINAL: SD 4 — STL 2. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected SD 2.8 - STL 3.7 (STL at 59.2% win probability). The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 6.5 total runs.
SD
2.8
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
STL
3.7
Projected Score
Win Probability
SDSTL
-1.5
Run Line (SD)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
STL L5SD W4
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 60.7% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
STL
246
SD
135
Projected
SD 2.8 — STL 3.7
Actual
SD 4 — STL 2
Pick Results
STL @ SD NRFInrfiWIN+0.90u
Randy Vásquez OVER 4.5 Ksk_propsWIN+2.33u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Dustin May R
STL
FF27%97 mph12% whiff
FC19%93 mph13% whiff
ST19%86 mph31% whiff
Randy Vásquez R
SD
FF30%95 mph19% whiff
FC27%90 mph23% whiff
CU14%84 mph23% whiff
Weather Impact
PETCO Park
70°F7 mph wind
HR: 0.985 Total: 0.990
7mph in
Bullpen Comparison
STL
4.66ERA
4.29FIP
7.77K/9
4.69BB/9
1.43WHIP
SD
4.01ERA
3.74FIP
8.09K/9
3.53BB/9
1.31WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-33.1% EV
+150
TOTAL OVER 7.5
-29.3% EV
-115
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-27.0% EV
-182
F5_ML HOME
-24.3% EV
-128
ML HOME
-23.9% EV
-143
ML AWAY
+21.5% EV
+120
First 5 Innings & NRFI
STL F5
2.0 runs
48.3% win
SD F5
1.4 runs
30.8% win
F5 Total
3.4
NRFI
65.1%
YRFI
34.9%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.66
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.1
Over 0.5 HR
87%
Over 1.5 HR
60%
No HR
13%
Jordan Walker STL30.0%
ISO: 0.250 | Barrel: 15.8% | vs Randy Vásquez | Park: 0.90x
JJ Wetherholt STL30.0%
ISO: 0.204 | Barrel: 9.0% | vs Randy Vásquez | Park: 0.90x Platoon: 1.12x
Gavin Sheets SD30.0%
ISO: 0.255 | Barrel: 11.7% | vs Dustin May | Park: 0.90x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Dustin May
0.0 K projected
STL | K/9: 0.0
Randy Vásquez
0.0 K projected
SD | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
STL8 injured
Sem Robberse SPDAY-TO-DAY
Lars Nootbaar LF60-DAY-IL
Victor Santos RPDAY-TO-DAY
Matt Pushard RP15-DAY-IL
Ixan Henderson SPDAY-TO-DAY
Ramon Urias 3B10-DAY-IL
+2 more
SD8 injured
Jhony Brito RP60-DAY-IL
German Marquez SP15-DAY-IL
Blake Hunt CDAY-TO-DAY
Jake Cronenworth 2B7-DAY IL
Joe Musgrove SP60-DAY-IL
Yu Darvish SPOUT
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1YELLOW ZONE47.0% WR (n=144)
Randy Vásquez (3.46 ERA, B- grade, 22.1% K) is legitimately better than Dustin May (5.56 ERA, C+ grade, 15.8% K). Model projects STL road underdog at 55.2% win with 21.5% ML edge and 21.2% UNDER edge. This is rare: away underdog favorite with strong pitcher advantage. Petco's 12% run suppression park factor supports UNDER, and May's weak command compounds the pitcher gap.
Key Factors
- Pitcher quality: Vásquez (3.46 ERA, 22.1% K, B- grade) >> May (5.56 ERA, 15.8% K, C+ grade). 2.1 ERA gap is substantial.
- ML edge 21.5%: Model 55.2% STL away vs market 45.5% implied = 9.7% gap. Strong away underdog value.
- UNDER edge 21.2%: Petco (0.9 park factor) suppresses runs. May's weak pitching (5.56 ERA) combined with park = low-scoring game likely.
- Zone: Away favorite combo 62.5% WR (40 samples). Good historical support.
- Weather: 70.1F, 7mph in wind (neutral). No weather adjustment.
Risk Factors
- High edge (21.5%) historically underperforms. This is in the 15%+ bucket (25% WR).
- STL road record unknown. Travel fatigue possible.
- SD home record unknown. Could be significantly stronger.
PITCHER MISMATCHML VALUETOTALS VALUE
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
STL 59.2%
-33.1 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-33.1 pts
Total
7.5
+21.2 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →