STL vs SD prediction for May 10, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects SD 3.2 - STL 3.1. SD is favored with a 52.4% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 6.3 total runs.
SD
3.2
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
STL
3.1
Projected Score
Win Probability
SDSTL
-1.5
Run Line (SD)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.6% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
STL
135
SD
135
Projected
SD 3.2 — STL 3.1
Actual
SD 3 — STL 2
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Kyle Leahy R
STL
FF32%94 mph10% whiff
SI16%94 mph4% whiff
SL16%89 mph16% whiff
Walker Buehler R
SD
FC23%90 mph12% whiff
FF18%93 mph6% whiff
KC16%77 mph36% whiff
Weather Impact
PETCO Park
72°F8 mph wind
HR: 0.985 Total: 0.989
7mph in
Bullpen Comparison
STL
4.65ERA
4.32FIP
7.86K/9
4.62BB/9
1.42WHIP
SD
3.99ERA
3.72FIP
8.10K/9
3.47BB/9
1.29WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-40.6% EV
-192
TOTAL OVER 8.5
-39.4% EV
-102
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
+26.9% EV
-120
F5 UNDER 4.5
+26.6% EV
-108
NRFI NRFI
+20.3% EV
-111
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-13.4% EV
+158
First 5 Innings & NRFI
STL F5
1.6 runs
37.6% win
SD F5
1.8 runs
40.2% win
F5 Total
3.4
NRFI
67.9%
YRFI
32.1%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.60
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.0
Over 0.5 HR
86%
Over 1.5 HR
58%
No HR
14%
Jordan Walker STL30.0%
ISO: 0.241 | Barrel: 15.2% | vs Walker Buehler | Park: 0.90x
Alec Burleson STL30.0%
ISO: 0.233 | Barrel: 9.3% | vs Walker Buehler | Park: 0.90x Platoon: 1.12x
Ty France SD30.0%
ISO: 0.366 | Barrel: 17.0% | vs Kyle Leahy | Park: 0.90x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Kyle Leahy
0.0 K projected
STL | K/9: 0.0
Walker Buehler
0.0 K projected
SD | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
STL8 injured
Sem Robberse SPDAY-TO-DAY
Lars Nootbaar LF60-DAY-IL
Victor Santos RPDAY-TO-DAY
Matt Pushard RP15-DAY-IL
Ixan Henderson SPDAY-TO-DAY
Ramon Urias 3B10-DAY-IL
+2 more
SD8 injured
Jhony Brito RP60-DAY-IL
German Marquez SP15-DAY-IL
Blake Hunt CDAY-TO-DAY
Jake Cronenworth 2B7-DAY IL
Joe Musgrove SP60-DAY-IL
Yu Darvish SPOUT
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -1YELLOW ZONE50.5% WR (n=243)
Model projects UNDER 8.5 with 26.9% edge in YELLOW zone (50.5% WR). Both SPs are mediocre (C+ grade, 6.09 and 5.32 ERA). Petco Park's elite suppression (0.90 park factor, -10% runs) explains model's 6.33 vs market 8.5. However, high-edge unders have been historically disastrous (47.4% WR, -40.8 units). Totals forbidden.
Key Factors
- UNDER 26.9% edge in YELLOW zone — another high-edge under in historically failing zone (50.5% WR, -24.2 units)
- Petco Park 0.90 factor: legendary pitcher park, suppresses runs ~10%. Model 6.33 is reasonable.
- Both SPs mediocre (Buehler 6.09, Leahy 5.32) — coin-flip pitching; park factor is the story.
- Weather 72.1°F, 7.7 mph IN — mild suppression, secondary to Petco advantage
Risk Factors
- High-edge unders (20%+) have been disastrous (47.4% WR). This 26.9% edge is in the losing zone.
- Petco park factor is real, but market may respect it more than model realizes (8.5 vs 6.33 is 2.17 run gap suggesting market skepticism)
- Both teams' offenses may exceed Petco suppression expectations; runs could exceed 8.5 total
TOTALS FORBIDDENPARK SUPPRESSION
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
SD 52.4%
-13.4 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-13.4 pts
Total
8.5
+26.9 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →