TB vs BAL prediction for May 25, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects BAL 4.9 - TB 5.2. TB is favored with a 50.5% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 10.1 total runs.
BAL
4.9
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
TB
5.2
Projected Score
Win Probability
BALTB
+1.5
Run Line (BAL)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.4% (2,300 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
TB
357
BAL
357
Projected
BAL 4.9 — TB 5.2
Actual
BAL 9 — TB 7
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Shane McClanahan L
TB
FF37%95 mph16% whiff
CH30%87 mph36% whiff
SL20%88 mph29% whiff
Kyle Bradish R
BAL
SI30%95 mph10% whiff
SL29%87 mph30% whiff
CU22%84 mph42% whiff
Weather Impact
Oriole Park at Camden Yards
73°F6 mph wind
HR: 0.992 Total: 0.993
5mph in
Bullpen Comparison
TB
4.20ERA
3.71FIP
8.22K/9
3.30BB/9
1.29WHIP
BAL
4.34ERA
3.94FIP
9.22K/9
3.81BB/9
1.30WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-34.5% EV
-172
TOTAL UNDER 7.5
-27.1% EV
+100
F5 OVER 4.5
+18.2% EV
+116
TOTAL OVER 7.5
+15.7% EV
-122
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-7.9% EV
+142
F5_ML AWAY
-6.8% EV
-128
First 5 Innings & NRFI
TB F5
3.0 runs
45.1% win
BAL F5
2.8 runs
41.6% win
F5 Total
5.8
NRFI
52.3%
YRFI
47.7%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.05
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.5
Over 0.5 HR
91%
Over 1.5 HR
70%
No HR
9%
Junior Caminero TB30.0%
ISO: 0.245 | Barrel: 13.3% | vs Kyle Bradish | Park: 1.03x
Jonathan Aranda TB30.0%
ISO: 0.215 | Barrel: 8.9% | vs Kyle Bradish | Park: 1.03x Platoon: 1.12x
Pete Alonso BAL30.0%
ISO: 0.150 | Barrel: 12.1% | vs Shane McClanahan | Park: 1.03x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Shane McClanahan
0.0 K projected
TB | K/9: 0.0
Kyle Bradish
0.0 K projected
BAL | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
TB8 injured
Jonny DeLuca RF10-DAY-IL
Ben Williamson 2B10-DAY-IL
Jake Fraley RF10-DAY-IL
Cole Sulser RP15-DAY-IL
Gavin Lux LF10-DAY-IL
Austin Vernon RPDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
BAL8 injured
Coby Mayo 3BDAY-TO-DAY
Heston Kjerstad LF60-DAY-IL
Levi Wells PDAY-TO-DAY
Cade Povich SP15-DAY-IL
Colin Selby RP60-DAY-IL
Ryan Mountcastle 1B60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1YELLOW ZONE50.0% WR (n=285)
Model projects 10.07 total runs (OVER 7.5 +15.7%, 63.6% prob) driven by warm weather (72.9F), park factor +3%, and two mediocre starting pitchers (McClanahan 3.05 ERA vs Bradish 4.46 ERA) — market at 7.5 undervalues run environment by ~2.5 runs.
Key Factors
- Total runs projection gap: +2.57 runs (model 10.07 vs market 7.5) — significant underpricing by market
- McClanahan (SP mismatch): 3.05 ERA (B grade) vs Bradish (4.46 ERA, C+ grade) — but both are solid middle-tier; advantage minimal
- Park factor 1.03 (3% boost) + warm weather (72.9F) + humidity 89% combines for ~0.5-0.8 run elevation
- BAL bullpen ERA 4.34 (8th worst, quality 1.04), TB bullpen ERA 4.20 (9th worst) — both pedestrian, less runout likely if one team builds lead
- Weather multiplier: Total multiplier 0.993 per sys (neutral) BUT temperature 72.9F = baseline boost ~0.4 runs; humidity 89% adds moisture = slightly deader ball (minor headwind equivalent)
Risk Factors
- Edge 17.4% on totals is at upper bound — calibration warning: totals grade F (44.9% WR). This edge size suggests model overconfidence in run environment.
- NRFI probability 52.3% (model) = slightly elevated first-inning scoring risk; if game stays 0-0 through 2 innings, under becomes more likely.
- Market set 7.5 deliberately low — possibly sharps bet under heavily overnight, signaling market belief in pitcher's control.
WEATHER IMPACTPARK FACTORPITCHER MISMATCHHIGH EDGE WARNING
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
TB 50.5%
-34.5 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-34.5 pts
Total
7.5
+15.7 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →