TB vs BAL prediction for May 26, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects BAL 4.4 - TB 4.3. BAL is favored with a 52.5% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 8.7 total runs.
BAL
4.4
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
TB
4.3
Projected Score
Win Probability
BALTB
+1.5
Run Line (BAL)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.6% (2,300 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
TB
246
BAL
246
Projected
BAL 4.4 — TB 4.3
Actual
BAL 6 — TB 1
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Griffin Jax R
TB
ST26%88 mph38% whiff
FF23%96 mph18% whiff
SI19%96 mph14% whiff
Shane Baz R
BAL
FF34%96 mph12% whiff
KC32%86 mph27% whiff
FC19%90 mph16% whiff
Weather Impact
Oriole Park at Camden Yards
74°F3 mph wind
HR: 1.011 Total: 1.004
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
TB
4.11ERA
3.71FIP
8.20K/9
3.40BB/9
1.30WHIP
BAL
4.32ERA
3.94FIP
9.25K/9
3.78BB/9
1.30WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-32.8% EV
-167
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-16.8% EV
+138
ML AWAY
-9.0% EV
-112
TOTAL OVER 8.5
-8.4% EV
-115
F5_ML AWAY
-7.5% EV
-116
F5 UNDER 4.5
+3.7% EV
-102
First 5 Innings & NRFI
TB F5
2.3 runs
41.4% win
BAL F5
2.4 runs
42.5% win
F5 Total
4.7
NRFI
55.7%
YRFI
44.3%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.92
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.2
Over 0.5 HR
88%
Over 1.5 HR
63%
No HR
12%
Junior Caminero TB30.0%
ISO: 0.235 | Barrel: 12.9% | vs Shane Baz | Park: 1.03x
Gunnar Henderson BAL28.3%
ISO: 0.174 | Barrel: 10.0% | vs Griffin Jax | Park: 1.03x Platoon: 1.12x
Jonathan Aranda TB22.9%
ISO: 0.238 | Barrel: 9.8% | vs Shane Baz | Park: 1.03x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Griffin Jax
0.0 K projected
TB | K/9: 0.0
Shane Baz
0.0 K projected
BAL | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
TB8 injured
Taylor Walls SSDAY-TO-DAY
Jonny DeLuca RF10-DAY-IL
Ben Williamson 2B10-DAY-IL
Jake Fraley RF10-DAY-IL
Cole Sulser RP15-DAY-IL
Gavin Lux LF10-DAY-IL
+2 more
BAL8 injured
Coby Mayo 3BDAY-TO-DAY
Heston Kjerstad LF60-DAY-IL
Levi Wells PDAY-TO-DAY
Cade Povich SP15-DAY-IL
Colin Selby RP60-DAY-IL
Ryan Mountcastle 1B60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRALYELLOW ZONE50.3% WR (n=200)
Model projects balanced matchup (52.5% BAL win prob, mean total 8.74 vs market 8.5) with minimal edges. Baz (BAL, 5.26 ERA) is noticeably worse than Jax (TB, 3.82 ERA) — 1.44 ERA gap should favor away favorite, yet market prices it BAL home slight favorite (-104 to -112). Highest edge is F5 UNDER 4.5 at only 3.7%, which doesn't meet minimum calibrated thresholds.
Key Factors
- Jax vs Baz: 3.82 ERA vs 5.26 ERA (1.44 gap) should favor TB but market prices BAL -104
- Model 8.74 total vs market 8.5 (only +0.24 edge, 2.8% upside)
- F5 edge only 3.7% (below calibrated 8% minimum)
- Park factor neutral (1.03)
- Recent form unknown but records indicate TB (47-29 in division?) stronger than BAL (struggling)
Risk Factors
- No compelling edge exists — game is priced fairly
- Both bullpens unknown; fatigue could swing scoring
- Injuries: BAL missing Mountcastle (60-day), Westburg (60-day) — lineup impact
LOW EDGE GAMEBALANCED PITCHER MATCHUP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
BAL 52.5%
-32.8 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-32.8 pts
Total
8.5
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →