TB vs BAL prediction for May 26, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects BAL 4.4 - TB 4.3. BAL is favored with a 52.5% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 8.7 total runs.
BAL
4.4
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
TB
4.3
Projected Score
Win Probability
BALTB
+1.5
Run Line (BAL)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.7% (2,610 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
TB
246
BAL
246
Projected
BAL 4.4 — TB 4.3
Actual
BAL 6 — TB 1
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Griffin Jax R
TB
ST26%88 mph38% whiff
FF23%96 mph18% whiff
SI19%96 mph14% whiff
Shane Baz R
BAL
FF34%96 mph12% whiff
KC32%86 mph27% whiff
FC19%90 mph16% whiff
Weather Impact
Oriole Park at Camden Yards
74°F3 mph wind
HR: 1.011 Total: 1.004
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
TB
4.11ERA
3.71FIP
8.20K/9
3.40BB/9
1.30WHIP
BAL
4.32ERA
3.94FIP
9.25K/9
3.78BB/9
1.30WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-32.8% EV
-167
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-16.8% EV
+138
ML AWAY
-9.0% EV
-112
TOTAL OVER 8.5
-8.4% EV
-115
F5_ML AWAY
-7.5% EV
-116
F5 UNDER 4.5
+3.7% EV
-102
First 5 Innings & NRFI
TB F5
2.3 runs
41.4% win
BAL F5
2.4 runs
42.5% win
F5 Total
4.7
NRFI
55.7%
YRFI
44.3%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.92
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.2
Over 0.5 HR
88%
Over 1.5 HR
63%
No HR
12%
Junior Caminero TB30.0%
ISO: 0.235 | Barrel: 12.9% | vs Shane Baz | Park: 1.03x
Gunnar Henderson BAL28.3%
ISO: 0.174 | Barrel: 10.0% | vs Griffin Jax | Park: 1.03x Platoon: 1.12x
Jonathan Aranda TB22.9%
ISO: 0.238 | Barrel: 9.8% | vs Shane Baz | Park: 1.03x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Griffin Jax
0.0 K projected
TB | K/9: 0.0
Shane Baz
0.0 K projected
BAL | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
TB8 injured
Taylor Walls SSDAY-TO-DAY
Jonny DeLuca RF10-DAY-IL
Ben Williamson 2B10-DAY-IL
Jake Fraley RF10-DAY-IL
Cole Sulser RP15-DAY-IL
Gavin Lux LF10-DAY-IL
+2 more
BAL8 injured
Coby Mayo 3BDAY-TO-DAY
Heston Kjerstad LF60-DAY-IL
Levi Wells PDAY-TO-DAY
Cade Povich SP15-DAY-IL
Colin Selby RP60-DAY-IL
Ryan Mountcastle 1B60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL
Model projects balanced matchup (52.5% BAL win prob, mean total 8.74 vs market 8.5) with minimal edges. Baz (BAL, 5.26 ERA) is noticeably worse than Jax (TB, 3.82 ERA) — 1.44 ERA gap should favor away favorite, yet market prices it BAL home slight favorite (-104 to -112). Highest edge is F5 UNDER 4.5 at only 3.7%, which doesn't meet minimum calibrated thresholds.
Key Factors
- Jax vs Baz: 3.82 ERA vs 5.26 ERA (1.44 gap) should favor TB but market prices BAL -104
- Model 8.74 total vs market 8.5 (only +0.24 edge, 2.8% upside)
- F5 edge only 3.7% (below calibrated 8% minimum)
- Park factor neutral (1.03)
- Recent form unknown but records indicate TB (47-29 in division?) stronger than BAL (struggling)
Risk Factors
- No compelling edge exists — game is priced fairly
- Both bullpens unknown; fatigue could swing scoring
- Injuries: BAL missing Mountcastle (60-day), Westburg (60-day) — lineup impact
LOW EDGE GAMEBALANCED PITCHER MATCHUP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
BAL 52.5%
-32.8 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-32.8 pts
Total
8.5
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.