TB vs BOS prediction for May 7, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects BOS 3.4 - TB 3.9. TB is favored with a 53.0% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 7.3 total runs.
BOS
3.4
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
TB
3.9
Projected Score
Win Probability
BOSTB
+1.5
Run Line (BOS)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.6% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
TB
246
BOS
135
Projected
BOS 3.4 — TB 3.9
Actual
BOS 4 — TB 8
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Griffin Jax R
TB
ST27%89 mph40% whiff
FF25%96 mph22% whiff
CH18%92 mph31% whiff
Jake Bennett L
BOS
SI32%92 mph7% whiff
CH31%84 mph33% whiff
FF25%93 mph33% whiff
Weather Impact
Fenway Park
58°F10 mph wind
HR: 0.965 Total: 0.978
8mph in
Bullpen Comparison
TB
4.12ERA
3.99FIP
8.40K/9
3.80BB/9
1.34WHIP
BOS
3.82ERA
4.57FIP
8.70K/9
3.79BB/9
1.30WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-42.7% EV
-200
TOTAL OVER 8.5
-25.1% EV
-105
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
+15.2% EV
-115
ML HOME
-10.5% EV
-116
F5 UNDER 4.5
+10.2% EV
-115
F5_ML HOME
-7.7% EV
-120
First 5 Innings & NRFI
TB F5
2.0 runs
40.8% win
BOS F5
2.0 runs
40.8% win
F5 Total
4.1
NRFI
59.6%
YRFI
40.4%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.82
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.4
Over 0.5 HR
76%
Over 1.5 HR
41%
No HR
24%
Junior Caminero TB30.0%
ISO: 0.219 | Barrel: 12.8% | vs Jake Bennett | Park: 1.08x Platoon: 1.12x
Jonny DeLuca TB29.8%
ISO: 0.294 | Barrel: 8.5% | vs Jake Bennett | Park: 1.08x Platoon: 1.12x
Yandy Díaz TB29.6%
ISO: 0.085 | Barrel: 8.5% | vs Jake Bennett | Park: 1.08x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Griffin Jax
0.0 K projected
TB | K/9: 0.0
Jake Bennett
0.0 K projected
BOS | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
TB8 injured
Joe Boyle SP15-DAY-IL
Gavin Lux LF10-DAY-IL
Mason Englert RP15-DAY-IL
Michael Grove RP60-DAY-IL
Steven Matz SP15-DAY-IL
Ryan Pepiot SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
BOS8 injured
Roman Anthony LFOUT
Johan Oviedo SP60-DAY-IL
Justin Slaten RP15-DAY-IL
Danny Coulombe RP15-DAY-IL
Patrick Sandoval SP60-DAY-IL
Ranger Suarez SPDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1YELLOW ZONE50.7% WR (n=234)
Jake Bennett (1.94 ERA, C+ but outlier low) vs Griffin Jax (5.55 ERA, B- weak command) creates elite UNDER conditions; cold (58.4°F) with strong in-wind (8 mph, 0.978 total mult) suppress runs; model 7.3 vs market 8.5 justified by weather + pitcher quality; 15.2% edge is at caution threshold but justified by externals.
Key Factors
- Bennett 1.94 ERA is outlier low (C+ grade, weak stuff 0.201 but elite command); TB pitcher advantage despite poor grade
- Jax 5.55 ERA (B- grade but poor command 0.345) — weak starter throws to strong Boston lineup
- Weather suppression: 58.4°F + 8 mph in-wind = 0.978 total multiplier (strong under signal)
- Fenway HR factor 0.965 (slightly suppresses) — combined with wind and cold = comprehensive under environment
- Model 7.3 vs market 8.5 = 1.2 run gap justified by weather + pitcher data
Risk Factors
- Bennett's 1.94 ERA is anomalous; sample size or context not specified — could revert to mean
- Boston lineup (if elite) could punish Jax despite cold weather
- 15.2% edge is at threshold; if weather forecast changes, edge evaporates
PITCHER MISMATCHCOLD WEATHER CONFIRMEDWIND IMPACTTOTALS VALUEUNDER EDGE
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
TB 53.0%
-42.7 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-42.7 pts
Total
8.5
+15.2 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →