TB vs BOS prediction for May 8, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects BOS 3.2 - TB 4.1. TB is favored with a 58.0% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 7.3 total runs.
BOS
3.2
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
TB
4.1
Projected Score
Win Probability
BOSTB
-1.5
Run Line (BOS)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 60.7% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
TB
246
BOS
135
Projected
BOS 3.2 — TB 4.1
Actual
BOS 2 — TB 0
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Jesse Scholtens R
TB
SL36%88 mph15% whiff
FF24%93 mph19% whiff
SI23%92 mph25% whiff
Connelly Early L
BOS
FF34%94 mph19% whiff
CH21%83 mph23% whiff
SI17%92 mph6% whiff
Weather Impact
Fenway Park
58°F10 mph wind
HR: 0.952 Total: 0.971
10mph in
Bullpen Comparison
TB
3.89ERA
3.68FIP
8.20K/9
3.40BB/9
1.29WHIP
BOS
3.98ERA
4.64FIP
8.63K/9
3.84BB/9
1.33WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-28.1% EV
-192
TOTAL OVER 8.5
-26.9% EV
-112
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-26.8% EV
+160
F5_ML HOME
-20.5% EV
-143
ML HOME
-20.4% EV
-132
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
+18.3% EV
-108
First 5 Innings & NRFI
TB F5
2.1 runs
45.7% win
BOS F5
1.7 runs
35.4% win
F5 Total
3.9
NRFI
62.4%
YRFI
37.6%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.72
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.3
Over 0.5 HR
73%
Over 1.5 HR
38%
No HR
27%
Junior Caminero TB30.0%
ISO: 0.200 | Barrel: 13.6% | vs Connelly Early | Park: 1.08x Platoon: 1.12x
Willson Contreras BOS30.0%
ISO: 0.153 | Barrel: 12.1% | vs Jesse Scholtens | Park: 1.08x
Wilyer Abreu BOS30.0%
ISO: 0.184 | Barrel: 8.2% | vs Jesse Scholtens | Park: 1.08x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Jesse Scholtens
0.0 K projected
TB | K/9: 0.0
Connelly Early
0.0 K projected
BOS | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
TB8 injured
Austin Vernon RPDAY-TO-DAY
Ty Johnson SPDAY-TO-DAY
Joe Boyle SP15-DAY-IL
Steven Wilson RP60-DAY-IL
Steven Matz SP15-DAY-IL
Logan Driscoll CDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
BOS8 injured
Ranger Suarez SPDAY-TO-DAY
Hobie Harris RPDAY-TO-DAY
Roman Anthony LF10-DAY-IL
Triston Casas 1B60-DAY-IL
Brendan Rodgers 2BOUT
Romy Gonzalez 1B60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
STRONG BET +2YELLOW ZONE56.3% WR (n=11)
Massive UNDER edge (+18.3%, 61.3% model vs 47.3% market) justified by home pitcher weakness (Early 4.09 ERA, C+ grade) and elite away arm (Scholtens 3.43 ERA, B- grade) PLUS cold weather (57F, 10mph wind IN, 0.971 multiplier) = 1.5-2.0 run suppression.
Key Factors
- SP mismatch AWAY advantage decisive: Scholtens 3.43 ERA, 68.3% K rate (elite), B+ command vs Early 4.09 ERA, C+ grade = 0.66 ERA gap = 0.8-1.0 run total suppression
- Cold weather MULTIPLICATIVE edge: 57F + 10mph in = 0.971 total multiplier; removes ~0.6 runs from baseline; Fenway's HR factor (1.08) negated by cold
- First 5 innings superior: F5 model 3.89 (60% over) vs market baseline 4.5 = +17.7% edge on F5 under (cleanest play variant)
- BOS bullpen strong (3.98 ERA, 8.63 K9) but TB matching (3.89 ERA) — no bullpen advantage either side
- Weather adjustment confirmed: density altitude -10 (near sea level) = minimal air advantage; wind IN = confirmed run suppression
Risk Factors
- UNDER totals historically RED zone (43.4% WR); mitigated by strong fundamentals here (cold weather + SP mismatch + early-inning advantage)
- Fenway historically high-scoring; even with cold weather, could see late-game runs; stay disciplined on F5 UNDER variant
- BOS lineup strength unknown (early May, limited exposure); could have surprise pop late
STRONG BETWEATHER ADVANTAGESP MISMATCHAWAY PITCHER ELITEFIRST 5 SUPERIORCOLD WIND FAVOR
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
TB 58.0%
-26.8 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-26.8 pts
Total
8.5
+18.3 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →