FINAL: BOS 1 — TB 4. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected BOS 3.0 - TB 3.8 (TB at 56.6% win probability). The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 6.9 total runs.
BOS
3.0
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
TB
3.8
Projected Score
Win Probability
BOSTB
-1.5
Run Line (BOS)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
TB W5BOS L5
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 57.4% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
TB
246
BOS
135
Projected
BOS 3.0 — TB 3.8
Actual
BOS 1 — TB 4
Pick Results
TB @ BOS NRFInrfiLOSS-1.00u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Nick Martinez R
TB
SI31%92 mph5% whiff
CH27%78 mph28% whiff
FC19%89 mph14% whiff
Payton Tolle L
BOS
FF46%96 mph25% whiff
SI22%95 mph6% whiff
CU14%82 mph52% whiff
Weather Impact
Fenway Park
68°F13 mph wind
HR: 0.961 Total: 0.976
11mph in
Bullpen Comparison
TB
3.80ERA
3.62FIP
8.16K/9
3.29BB/9
1.28WHIP
BOS
3.93ERA
4.56FIP
8.76K/9
3.78BB/9
1.31WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL OVER 8.5
-32.0% EV
+100
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-29.6% EV
+142
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-28.2% EV
-172
F5_ML HOME
-22.5% EV
-143
ML HOME
-20.9% EV
-145
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
+20.1% EV
-122
First 5 Innings & NRFI
TB F5
2.0 runs
45.8% win
BOS F5
1.5 runs
33.3% win
F5 Total
3.5
NRFI
63.3%
YRFI
36.7%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.68
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.4
Over 0.5 HR
74%
Over 1.5 HR
40%
No HR
26%
Willson Contreras BOS30.0%
ISO: 0.150 | Barrel: 12.0% | vs Nick Martinez | Park: 1.08x
Junior Caminero TB22.5%
ISO: 0.180 | Barrel: 13.3% | vs Payton Tolle | Park: 1.08x Platoon: 1.12x
Jarren Duran BOS18.2%
ISO: 0.143 | Barrel: 6.7% | vs Nick Martinez | Park: 1.08x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Nick Martinez
0.0 K projected
TB | K/9: 0.0
Payton Tolle
0.0 K projected
BOS | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
TB8 injured
Austin Vernon RPDAY-TO-DAY
Ty Johnson SPDAY-TO-DAY
Joe Boyle SP15-DAY-IL
Steven Wilson RP60-DAY-IL
Steven Matz SP15-DAY-IL
Logan Driscoll CDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
BOS8 injured
Ranger Suarez SPDAY-TO-DAY
Hobie Harris RPDAY-TO-DAY
Roman Anthony LF10-DAY-IL
Triston Casas 1B60-DAY-IL
Brendan Rodgers 2BOUT
Romy Gonzalez 1B60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1GREEN ZONE66.4% WR (n=20)
Market is incorrectly favoring home (BOS -144) based on Fenway prestige + Tolle 2.20 ERA, but ignores Martinez's weak 14.5% K-rate and D stuff grade. Cold weather (68.5°F, 12.8 mph headwind) suppresses runs by ~1.5, making TB's underdog value legitimate. Model's 56.6% vs market's 45% = 11.6% edge.
Key Factors
- Pitcher quality mismatch: Tolle 2.20 ERA, 34.3% K-rate (elite strikeout pitcher) vs Martinez 1.85 ERA but only 14.5% K-rate (weak stuff). Tolle is genuinely better despite lower ERA.
- Weather: 68.5°F, 12.8 mph wind IN (Fenway) suppresses runs ~1.5 — model total 6.88 vs market 8.5 has real basis
- Market implied BOS 59% vs model 43.4% = 15.9% edge to TB at 56.6% (after accounting for home field advantage)
- Zone profile GREEN (66.4% WR, n=20) for away underdog in this range — CONFIRMED profitable profile
Risk Factors
- Fenway home field effect (+8% HR mult) is real; market may be correctly honoring home advantage despite pitcher gap
- Tolle 2.20 ERA with 34.3% K-rate is ELITE; could dominate despite cold weather
- Risk of line closing before game (sharp money flooding TB if signal spreads)
PITCHER MISMATCHWEATHER SUPPORTSHARP SUPPORTLINE VALUE
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
TB 56.6%
-29.6 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-29.6 pts
Total
8.5
+20.1 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →