FINAL: CLE 0 — TB 1. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected CLE 3.1 - TB 3.2 (CLE at 51.6% win probability). The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 6.3 total runs.
CLE
3.1
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
TB
3.2
Projected Score
Win Probability
CLETB
-1.5
Run Line (CLE)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
TB W5CLE
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.6% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
TB
135
CLE
135
Projected
CLE 3.1 — TB 3.2
Actual
CLE 0 — TB 1
Pick Results
TB @ CLE NRFInrfiLOSS-1.00u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Nick Martinez R
TB
SI31%92 mph5% whiff
CH27%78 mph29% whiff
FC19%89 mph17% whiff
Tanner Bibee R
CLE
FF28%94 mph7% whiff
FC28%86 mph35% whiff
CH18%81 mph35% whiff
Weather Impact
Progressive Field
60°F12 mph wind
HR: 0.962 Total: 0.976
11mph in
Bullpen Comparison
TB
5.42ERA
4.92FIP
8.34K/9
4.33BB/9
1.49WHIP
CLE
4.58ERA
4.16FIP
10.35K/9
3.45BB/9
1.29WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-40.1% EV
-192
TOTAL OVER 7.5
-31.4% EV
-112
TOTAL UNDER 7.5
+23.0% EV
-108
F5 UNDER 4.5
+18.9% EV
-147
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-16.4% EV
+158
F5_ML HOME
-14.9% EV
-135
First 5 Innings & NRFI
TB F5
1.6 runs
40.8% win
CLE F5
1.5 runs
36.2% win
F5 Total
3.1
NRFI
68.0%
YRFI
32.0%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.58
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.5
Over 0.5 HR
78%
Over 1.5 HR
45%
No HR
22%
Junior Caminero TB30.0%
ISO: 0.265 | Barrel: 13.9% | vs Tanner Bibee | Park: 0.97x
Daniel Schneemann CLE28.0%
ISO: 0.265 | Barrel: 15.6% | vs Nick Martinez | Park: 0.97x Platoon: 1.12x
Jonathan Aranda TB27.5%
ISO: 0.289 | Barrel: 14.2% | vs Tanner Bibee | Park: 0.97x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Nick Martinez
0.0 K projected
TB | K/9: 0.0
Tanner Bibee
0.0 K projected
CLE | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
TB8 injured
Garrett Cleavinger RP15-DAY-IL
Edwin Uceta RP60-DAY-IL
TJ Nichols PDAY-TO-DAY
Tre' Morgan 1BDAY-TO-DAY
Alfredo Zarraga RPDAY-TO-DAY
Keyshawn Askew RPDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
CLE5 injured
Gabriel Arias SS10-DAY-IL
Cooper Ingle CDAY-TO-DAY
Shawn Armstrong RP15-DAY-IL
Andrew Walters RP15-DAY-IL
Carlos Hernandez RPOUT
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -1RED ZONE42.0% WR (n=375)
Nick Martinez (2.27 ERA, elite 13.6% BB rate) outpitches Tanner Bibee (4.81 ERA) sharply, but away ML is RED zone (-42% WR historical); cold weather (59.7F, 11.5mph wind IN) crushes totals and offensive output; model's 0.8% ML edge is noise.
Key Factors
- Pitcher mismatch favors away: Martinez 2.27 ERA, 13.6% BB rate (elite control) vs Bibee 4.81 ERA (7.1% BB rate)
- Away ML zone RED: 42.0% WR across 375 tracked bets (z=-3.15) — systemic weakness
- Cold weather (59.7F + 11.5mph wind in): Density altitude 220ft, HR mult 0.962, total mult 0.976 — runs suppressed ~0.5
- Model edge minimal: 0.8% on ML falls below 3% calibration threshold
- Under 7.5 shows 23% edge (63.7% prob) but totals are DISABLED (46.9% WR) — don't trust it
Risk Factors
- Away moneyline face 3-5% historical headwind regardless of pitching advantage
- System disabled all totals markets; despite high sim edges, unders have 42.4% WR
- Possible bullpen fatigue factors not visible in snap-shot data
RED ZONEAWAY ML HISTORICAL HEADWINDCOLD WEATHER IMPACTLOW EDGE
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
CLE 51.6%
-16.4 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-16.4 pts
Total
7.5
+23.0 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →