TB vs CLE prediction for April 29, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects CLE 3.0 - TB 3.5. TB is favored with a 52.9% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 6.5. Model projects 6.5 total runs.
CLE
3.0
Projected Score
VS
O/U 6.5
TB
3.5
Projected Score
Win Probability
CLETB
+1.5
Run Line (CLE)
6.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
TB W5CLE
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.6% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
TB
245
CLE
135
Projected
CLE 3.0 — TB 3.5
Actual
CLE 3 — TB 1
Pick Results
Daniel Schneemann OVER 0.5 Hitsbatter_hitsWIN+1.20u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Drew Rasmussen R
TB
FC35%90 mph22% whiff
FF27%96 mph18% whiff
SI20%96 mph7% whiff
Gavin Williams R
CLE
FF29%97 mph26% whiff
ST28%87 mph46% whiff
CU18%83 mph22% whiff
Weather Impact
Progressive Field
50°F5 mph wind
HR: 1.022 Total: 1.012
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
TB
5.34ERA
4.91FIP
8.43K/9
4.48BB/9
1.50WHIP
CLE
4.40ERA
4.15FIP
9.96K/9
3.47BB/9
1.27WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-45.5% EV
-233
F5_ML HOME
-13.6% EV
-112
TOTAL OVER 6.5
-12.1% EV
-112
ML HOME
-10.6% EV
-118
F5 UNDER 3.5
+5.4% EV
-125
NRFI NRFI
+4.1% EV
-175
First 5 Innings & NRFI
TB F5
1.8 runs
43.3% win
CLE F5
1.5 runs
34.4% win
F5 Total
3.3
NRFI
68.2%
YRFI
31.8%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.60
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.4
Over 0.5 HR
75%
Over 1.5 HR
41%
No HR
25%
Junior Caminero TB30.0%
ISO: 0.262 | Barrel: 13.7% | vs Gavin Williams | Park: 0.97x
Daniel Schneemann CLE30.0%
ISO: 0.245 | Barrel: 14.8% | vs Drew Rasmussen | Park: 0.97x Platoon: 1.12x
Jonathan Aranda TB23.6%
ISO: 0.275 | Barrel: 13.7% | vs Gavin Williams | Park: 0.97x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Drew Rasmussen
0.0 K projected
TB | K/9: 0.0
Gavin Williams
0.0 K projected
CLE | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
TB8 injured
Gavin Lux LF10-DAY-IL
Garrett Cleavinger RP15-DAY-IL
Edwin Uceta RP60-DAY-IL
TJ Nichols PDAY-TO-DAY
Tre' Morgan 1BDAY-TO-DAY
Alfredo Zarraga RPDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
CLE5 injured
Gabriel Arias SS10-DAY-IL
Cooper Ingle CDAY-TO-DAY
Shawn Armstrong RP15-DAY-IL
Andrew Walters RP15-DAY-IL
Carlos Hernandez RPOUT
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
TB 52.9%
-45.5 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-45.5 pts
Total
6.5
+3.2 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →