FINAL: KC 4 — TB 10. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected KC 6.6 - TB 5.7 (KC at 59.3% win probability). The run line is 1.5 and the total is 9.5. Model projects 12.3 total runs.
KC
6.6
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.5
TB
5.7
Projected Score
Win Probability
KCTB
+1.5
Run Line (KC)
9.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
TB W5KC L5
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 58.1% (2,559 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
TB
468
KC
579
Projected
KC 6.6 — TB 5.7
Actual
KC 4 — TB 10
Pick Results
KC MLmlLOSS-0.50u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Griffin Jax R
TB
ST25%88 mph35% whiff
CH22%91 mph38% whiff
SI21%96 mph12% whiff
Noah Cameron L
KC
FF29%92 mph12% whiff
CH21%81 mph30% whiff
FC19%90 mph22% whiff
Weather Impact
Kauffman Stadium
94°F17 mph wind
HR: 1.032 Total: 1.014
thin air, 6mph in
Bullpen Comparison
TB
4.35ERA
4.16FIP
8.55K/9
3.50BB/9
1.33WHIP
KC
4.34ERA
5.00FIP
8.61K/9
4.51BB/9
1.45WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL UNDER 9.5
-25.9% EV
+100
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-25.7% EV
+126
F5_ML AWAY
-21.9% EV
-122
ML AWAY
-20.2% EV
-120
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-19.2% EV
-152
F5 OVER 5.5
+16.9% EV
+106
First 5 Innings & NRFI
TB F5
3.1 runs
35.4% win
KC F5
4.0 runs
53.5% win
F5 Total
7.1
NRFI
42.4%
YRFI
57.6%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.39
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
3.9
Over 0.5 HR
98%
Over 1.5 HR
89%
No HR
2%
Jac Caglianone KC29.6%
ISO: 0.164 | Barrel: 8.5% | vs Griffin Jax | Park: 0.96x Platoon: 1.12x
Junior Caminero TB27.3%
ISO: 0.191 | Barrel: 12.5% | vs Noah Cameron | Park: 0.96x Platoon: 1.12x
Ryan Vilade TB25.6%
ISO: 0.187 | Barrel: 8.9% | vs Noah Cameron | Park: 0.96x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Griffin Jax
0.0 K projected
TB | K/9: 0.0
Noah Cameron
0.0 K projected
KC | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
TB8 injured
Austin Vernon RPDAY-TO-DAY
Jake Fraley RF10-DAY-IL
Luis Guerrero RPDEVELOPMENTAL LIST
Tre' Morgan 1BDAY-TO-DAY
Logan Davidson 1BDAY-TO-DAY
Steven Matz SP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
KC8 injured
Stephen Kolek SPBEREAVEMENT
Carlos Estevez RP60-DAY-IL
Nick Mears RP15-DAY-IL
Kris Bubic SP15-DAY-IL
Cole Ragans SP60-DAY-IL
Maikel Garcia 3B10-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
STRONG BET +1YELLOW ZONE69.9% WR (n=7)
Noah Cameron (KC home, 8.2 K/9, 21.5% K rate, B- 48.8%) vs Griffin Jax (TB away, 8.4 K/9, 23.2% K rate, B- 52.3%). Model favors KC home at 59.3% (13.9% edge vs +102 market, 49.5% implied KC). This is asymmetry: market pricing KC underdog despite home field + bullpen. Zone: Home ML YELLOW (56.3% WR, n=145) with 10-15% edge bucket shows 69.9% WR (n=7, tiny sample BUT historically best performing zone for that edge range). Combo: home ML GREEN (59.3% WR, n=82). Bullpen: KC average (4.34 ERA) vs TB good (4.35 ERA) — nearly identical relief. Weather: 94.1°F hot + 16.6 mph wind IN (-5.9 tail wind) suppresses runs. Model 12.28 total vs market 9.5 = 2.78 run gap BUT wind suppresses runs, so totals edge inflated. ML is the play: KC +102 is value. Team records matter here: need to verify but market is likely overweighting recent TB success. LEAN suggests KC +102 with standard units.
Key Factors
- Cameron (KC, 8.2 K/9, 21.5% K rate, B- 48.8%) vs Jax (TB, 8.4 K/9, 23.2% K rate, B- 52.3%) = Jax slightly better but both adequate
- KC home field + KC bullpen (4.34 ERA) similar to TB bullpen (4.35 ERA) — relief wash but home advantage worth ~2-3pp
- Market +102 KC implies 49.5% prob but model 56.4% = 6.9pp overvalue of away
- Zone: Home ML 10-15% edge bucket 69.9% WR (n=7, small) — historically best for this edge range
- Combo GREEN (59.3% WR, n=82) validates home lean
Risk Factors
- Small zone sample (n=7) on 10-15% edge bucket — possible noise
- Jax K rate 23.2% slightly above Cameron 21.5% — TB slight SP advantage
- Hot weather + heavy wind IN actually SUPPRESSES runs (wind factor -5.9), so totals edge (14.6%) inflated
HOME ML COMBO GREENUNDERDOG VALUE STRONGEDGE 13.9% ACTIONABLEZONE HIGH WR BUT SMALL N
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
KC 59.3%
-19.2 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-19.2 pts
Total
9.5
+14.6 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →