TB vs KC prediction for July 2, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects KC 6.6 - TB 5.7. KC is favored with a 59.3% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 10.5. Model projects 12.2 total runs.
KC
6.6
Projected Score
VS
O/U 10.5
TB
5.7
Projected Score
Win Probability
KCTB
+1.5
Run Line (KC)
10.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 59.3% (2,543 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
TB
468
KC
579
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Griffin Jax R
TB
ST25%88 mph35% whiff
CH22%91 mph38% whiff
SI21%96 mph12% whiff
Noah Cameron L
KC
FF29%92 mph12% whiff
CH21%81 mph30% whiff
FC19%90 mph22% whiff
Weather Impact
Kauffman Stadium
95°F17 mph wind
HR: 1.022 Total: 1.008
thin air, 8mph in
Bullpen Comparison
TB
4.35ERA
4.16FIP
8.55K/9
3.50BB/9
1.33WHIP
KC
4.34ERA
5.00FIP
8.61K/9
4.51BB/9
1.45WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-27.5% EV
+116
ML AWAY
-22.8% EV
-135
TOTAL UNDER 10.5
-21.4% EV
-122
ML HOME
+20.1% EV
+116
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-17.4% EV
-141
TOTAL OVER 10.5
+13.6% EV
+100
First 5 Innings & NRFI
TB F5
3.1 runs
35.3% win
KC F5
4.0 runs
53.2% win
F5 Total
7.1
NRFI
42.5%
YRFI
57.5%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.37
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
4.0
Over 0.5 HR
98%
Over 1.5 HR
90%
No HR
2%
Junior Caminero TB30.0%
ISO: 0.191 | Barrel: 12.5% | vs Noah Cameron | Park: 0.96x Platoon: 1.12x
Ryan Vilade TB30.0%
ISO: 0.187 | Barrel: 8.9% | vs Noah Cameron | Park: 0.96x Platoon: 1.12x
Jac Caglianone KC30.0%
ISO: 0.164 | Barrel: 8.5% | vs Griffin Jax | Park: 0.96x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Griffin Jax
0.0 K projected
TB | K/9: 0.0
Noah Cameron
0.0 K projected
KC | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
TB8 injured
Austin Vernon RPDAY-TO-DAY
Jake Fraley RF10-DAY-IL
Luis Guerrero RPDEVELOPMENTAL LIST
Tre' Morgan 1BDAY-TO-DAY
Logan Davidson 1BDAY-TO-DAY
Steven Matz SP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
KC8 injured
Stephen Kolek SPBEREAVEMENT
Carlos Estevez RP60-DAY-IL
Nick Mears RP15-DAY-IL
Kris Bubic SP15-DAY-IL
Cole Ragans SP60-DAY-IL
Maikel Garcia 3B10-DAY-IL
+2 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
KC 59.3%
-17.4 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-17.4 pts
Total
10.5
+13.6 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →