TB vs LAA prediction for June 12, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects LAA 4.6 - TB 6.0. TB is favored with a 58.4% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 9.0. Model projects 10.6 total runs.
LAA
4.6
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.0
TB
6.0
Projected Score
Win Probability
LAATB
+1.5
Run Line (LAA)
9.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 61.3% (2,305 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
TB
468
LAA
357
Projected
LAA 4.6 — TB 6.0
Actual
LAA 4 — TB 3
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Shane McClanahan L
TB
FF38%95 mph18% whiff
CH28%87 mph33% whiff
SL20%88 mph26% whiff
Sam Aldegheri L
LAA
FF44%92 mph14% whiff
CH28%81 mph33% whiff
SL13%82 mph18% whiff
Weather Impact
Angel Stadium
81°F10 mph wind
HR: 0.992 Total: 0.992
thin air, 8mph in
Bullpen Comparison
TB
4.28ERA
4.14FIP
8.32K/9
3.37BB/9
1.30WHIP
LAA
4.28ERA
4.68FIP
9.33K/9
5.25BB/9
1.42WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-38.5% EV
-118
TOTAL UNDER 9.0
-19.3% EV
-120
TOTAL OVER 9.0
+10.6% EV
-102
F5 OVER 4.5
+10.5% EV
-130
F5_ML AWAY
-7.5% EV
-189
ML AWAY
-5.9% EV
-167
First 5 Innings & NRFI
TB F5
3.5 runs
52.4% win
LAA F5
2.7 runs
35.3% win
F5 Total
6.2
NRFI
45.1%
YRFI
54.9%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.32
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.9
Over 0.5 HR
94%
Over 1.5 HR
78%
No HR
6%
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Shane McClanahan
0.0 K projected
TB | K/9: 0.0
Sam Aldegheri
0.0 K projected
LAA | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
TB8 injured
Gavin Lux LF60-DAY-IL
Craig Kimbrel RP15-DAY-IL
Jonny DeLuca RF10-DAY-IL
Jonathan Heasley RP60-DAY-IL
Manuel Rodriguez RP60-DAY-IL
Steven Wilson RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
LAA8 injured
Nolan Schanuel 1BDAY-TO-DAY
Ben Joyce RP60-DAY-IL
Jack Kochanowicz SP60-DAY-IL
Sebastian Rivero C10-DAY-IL
Yoan Moncada 3B60-DAY-IL
Adam Frazier 2B10-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
STRONG BET +1YELLOW ZONE50.1% WR (n=188)
Massive OVER edge on weak pitching: Model 10.64 total runs vs market 9.0 (1.64-run gap = +10.6% edge, 55.9% model). Sam Aldegheri (2.43 ERA, low-grade C weak stuff) vs Shane McClanahan (3.08 ERA, B- 0.521). Both mediocre arms in non-elite park (LAA neutral). F5 OVER edge exceptional (+10.5%, 62.5% model). Away favorite LAD in RED zone historically but TOTAL play (OVER specifically) is actionable. Model projects 6.04 away runs (strong) vs 4.6 home (weak), total volatility high.
Key Factors
- TOTAL edge clear: +10.6% (55.9% model vs ~48% market), model 10.64 vs market 9.0 (1.64-run gap)
- Aldegheri weak arm: C-grade 0.286 overall (weak stuff), 16% K-rate suggests elevated contact/runs
- F5 OVER edge exceptional: +10.5% (62.5% model) confirms early-inning scoring concentration
Risk Factors
- TB away favorite in RED zone (39.5% WR away) — avoid TB ML despite -5.9% edge
- LAA home field advantage may outperform neutral park multiplier in real conditions
- Aldegheri may be stronger than 2.43 ERA baseline suggests (small sample size)
AWAY FAVORITE RED ZONETOTAL OVER EDGE CLEARWEAK HOME PITCHERF5 OVER STRONG
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
TB 58.4%
-38.5 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-38.5 pts
Total
9.0
+10.6 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →