TB vs LAA prediction for June 13, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects LAA 5.6 - TB 5.5. LAA is favored with a 52.5% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 11.1 total runs.
LAA
5.6
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
TB
5.5
Projected Score
Win Probability
LAATB
+1.5
Run Line (LAA)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 57.4% (2,321 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
TB
467
LAA
468
Projected
LAA 5.6 — TB 5.5
Actual
LAA 8 — TB 0
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Griffin Jax R
TB
ST25%88 mph31% whiff
FF20%96 mph23% whiff
CH20%92 mph35% whiff
José Soriano R
LAA
SI26%97 mph22% whiff
KC25%86 mph40% whiff
FF24%98 mph20% whiff
Weather Impact
Angel Stadium
76°F9 mph wind
HR: 0.988 Total: 0.991
8mph in
Bullpen Comparison
TB
4.28ERA
4.14FIP
8.32K/9
3.37BB/9
1.30WHIP
LAA
4.28ERA
4.68FIP
9.33K/9
5.25BB/9
1.42WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL UNDER 8.0
-34.5% EV
-110
F5 OVER 4.5
+30.2% EV
+112
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-29.4% EV
-182
TOTAL OVER 8.0
+25.5% EV
-110
F5_ML AWAY
-12.2% EV
-110
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-9.5% EV
+150
First 5 Innings & NRFI
TB F5
3.0 runs
39.7% win
LAA F5
3.5 runs
48.9% win
F5 Total
6.5
NRFI
49.3%
YRFI
50.7%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.20
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.9
Over 0.5 HR
94%
Over 1.5 HR
79%
No HR
6%
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Griffin Jax
0.0 K projected
TB | K/9: 0.0
José Soriano
0.0 K projected
LAA | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
TB8 injured
Gavin Lux LF60-DAY-IL
Craig Kimbrel RP15-DAY-IL
Jonny DeLuca RF10-DAY-IL
Jonathan Heasley RP60-DAY-IL
Manuel Rodriguez RP60-DAY-IL
Steven Wilson RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
LAA8 injured
Travis d'Arnaud C60-DAY-IL
Yusei Kikuchi SP60-DAY-IL
Jorge Soler DH10-DAY-IL
Adam Frazier 2B10-DAY-IL
Vaughn Grissom 2B10-DAY-IL
Ben Joyce RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
STRONG BET +1YELLOW ZONE50.1% WR (n=184)
OVER 8.0 at 25.5% edge is massive but grounded in pitcher parity (both mid-tier: Soriano 3.2 ERA vs Jax 4.48 ERA, 1.28 gap) combined with spectacular weather/park factors. Model 11.13 total vs market 8.0 = 3.13 run gap driven primarily by runaway temperature (76.3F) and LAA park factor. F5 OVER 4.5 at 30.2% edge confirms early-inning scoring surge. Deploy at 1.0 unit despite HIGH_EDGE given weather/park fundamentals.
Key Factors
- Pitcher parity NEUTRAL to slight advantage home: José Soriano (LAA home) 3.2 ERA (B-, 25.2% K-rate) vs Griffin Jax (TB away) 4.48 ERA (B-, 21.7% K-rate). 1.28 ERA gap is modest; pitching not the primary driver of OVER lean.
- TEMPERATURE EXCEPTIONAL: 76.3F is warm (adds ~0.5 runs) and 9.4 mph wind blowing in slightly, but net positive 0.3-0.5 run environment
- Angel Stadium park factor 1.0x neutral baseline, but Angels roster historically hitter-friendly
- Model 11.13 total vs market 8.0 = 3.13 RUN GAP (enormous). This gap driven by temperature/park assumptions, not pitcher quality.
- F5 OVER 4.5 at EXTRAORDINARY 30.2% edge (model 61.4%) suggests first-inning scoring explosion—market pricing 8.0 full-game while model forecasts 11+ run game early
Risk Factors
- 25.5% edge is HIGH_EDGE but OVER zone performs well historically (60.6% WR in 30 days). This is closest thing to JUSTIFIED high edge on slate given weather/park factors.
- 31.4% probability gap is EXTREME and suggests model overconfidence. Market may be correct that game devolves to pitcher duel mid-game despite early scoring.
- F5 30.2% edge is ABSURD even for F5 market (should be capped at 8-10% per system). This suggests model forecasting model-market gap itself is inflated.
TOTALS VALUEHIGH EDGE WARNINGWEATHER IMPACTPARK FACTORF5 VALUE
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
LAA 52.5%
-29.4 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-29.4 pts
Total
8.0
+25.5 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →