TB vs LAA prediction for June 14, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects LAA 4.5 - TB 4.8. TB is favored with a 50.3% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 9.0. Model projects 9.3 total runs.
LAA
4.5
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.0
TB
4.8
Projected Score
Win Probability
LAATB
+1.5
Run Line (LAA)
9.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.4% (2,331 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
TB
357
LAA
346
Projected
LAA 4.5 — TB 4.8
Actual
LAA 3 — TB 8
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Casey Legumina R
TB
FF39%93 mph23% whiff
SI19%93 mph5% whiff
ST18%80 mph31% whiff
Grayson Rodriguez R
LAA
FF52%96 mph14% whiff
CH19%83 mph19% whiff
CU15%80 mph21% whiff
Weather Impact
Angel Stadium
82°F7 mph wind
HR: 0.993 Total: 0.994
thin air, 7mph in
Bullpen Comparison
TB
4.41ERA
4.14FIP
8.44K/9
3.43BB/9
1.34WHIP
LAA
4.17ERA
4.62FIP
9.29K/9
5.24BB/9
1.42WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-35.2% EV
-175
F5_ML AWAY
-7.6% EV
-118
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-7.0% EV
+142
ML AWAY
-6.3% EV
-118
TOTAL OVER 9.0
-5.2% EV
-110
TOTAL UNDER 9.0
-3.8% EV
-110
First 5 Innings & NRFI
TB F5
2.5 runs
42.5% win
LAA F5
2.6 runs
43.4% win
F5 Total
5.0
NRFI
50.7%
YRFI
49.3%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.05
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.6
Over 0.5 HR
92%
Over 1.5 HR
73%
No HR
8%
Jonathan Aranda TB30.0%
ISO: 0.228 | Barrel: 8.8% | vs Grayson Rodriguez | Park: 0.98x Platoon: 1.12x
Junior Caminero TB30.0%
ISO: 0.217 | Barrel: 12.0% | vs Grayson Rodriguez | Park: 0.98x
Mike Trout LAA30.0%
ISO: 0.228 | Barrel: 12.7% | vs Casey Legumina | Park: 0.98x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Casey Legumina
0.0 K projected
TB | K/9: 0.0
Grayson Rodriguez
0.0 K projected
LAA | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
TB8 injured
Gavin Lux LF60-DAY-IL
Jonny DeLuca RF10-DAY-IL
Jonathan Heasley RP60-DAY-IL
Manuel Rodriguez RP60-DAY-IL
Steven Wilson RP60-DAY-IL
Edwin Uceta RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
LAA8 injured
Travis d'Arnaud C60-DAY-IL
Yusei Kikuchi SP60-DAY-IL
Jorge Soler DH10-DAY-IL
Adam Frazier 2B10-DAY-IL
Vaughn Grissom 2B10-DAY-IL
Ben Joyce RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
TB 50.3%
-35.2 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-35.2 pts
Total
9.0
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →