TB vs LAD prediction for June 16, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects LAD 4.5 - TB 3.6. LAD is favored with a 58.5% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 8.1 total runs.
LAD
4.5
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
TB
3.6
Projected Score
Win Probability
LADTB
-1.5
Run Line (LAD)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 59.9% (2,386 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
TB
246
LAD
346
Projected
LAD 4.5 — TB 3.6
Actual
LAD 1 — TB 0
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Drew Rasmussen R
TB
FC33%90 mph23% whiff
FF27%96 mph22% whiff
SI22%96 mph12% whiff
Justin Wrobleski L
LAD
FF50%94 mph20% whiff
SL34%86 mph17% whiff
SI6%93 mph0% whiff
Weather Impact
Dodger Stadium
68°F7 mph wind
HR: 0.994 Total: 0.994
7mph in
Bullpen Comparison
TB
4.35ERA
4.16FIP
8.55K/9
3.50BB/9
1.33WHIP
LAD
3.58ERA
3.45FIP
10.00K/9
3.64BB/9
1.19WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-44.2% EV
-179
F5_ML AWAY
-13.2% EV
+110
TOTAL OVER 8.5
-13.0% EV
+102
ML AWAY
-6.7% EV
+124
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
+6.3% EV
+146
NRFI NRFI
+3.8% EV
-104
First 5 Innings & NRFI
TB F5
1.8 runs
33.9% win
LAD F5
2.5 runs
50.5% win
F5 Total
4.3
NRFI
55.7%
YRFI
44.3%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.93
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.1
Over 0.5 HR
87%
Over 1.5 HR
61%
No HR
13%
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Drew Rasmussen
0.0 K projected
TB | K/9: 0.0
Justin Wrobleski
0.0 K projected
LAD | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
TB8 injured
Gavin Lux LF60-DAY-IL
Jonny DeLuca RF10-DAY-IL
Jonathan Heasley RP60-DAY-IL
Manuel Rodriguez RP60-DAY-IL
Steven Wilson RP60-DAY-IL
Edwin Uceta RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
LAD8 injured
Tyler Glasnow SP60-DAY-IL
Edwin Diaz RP60-DAY-IL
Teoscar Hernandez LF10-DAY-IL
Brock Stewart RP15-DAY-IL
Will Smith C10-DAY-IL
Kendall George CFOUT
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -1GREEN ZONE55.6% WR (n=103)
Model favors LAD (58.5% win prob) but market is pricing LAD at 59.5% implied (-147 ML) — essentially fair. RUN LINE +1.5 (LAD cover) shows +6.3% edge (43.2% prob) but this is run-line territory which is D-grade historically (50.3% WR). No compelling ML or TOTAL edge exists after market respect for LAD pitching. SKIP recommended.
Key Factors
- Pitcher quality nearly identical: Wrobleski 3.19 ERA (B- 0.468, elite 0.828 command) vs Rasmussen 2.93 ERA (B 0.58) — Rasmussen slight edge but Wrobleski's command is elite
- Park factor 0.92 (Dodger Stadium suppresses -8%) — slight run suppression but marginal
- Weather 68F, wind in (-6.5 tail-wind) = slight suppression. Neutral-to-slightly unfavorable for overs
- Model 58.3% vs market 59.5% = -1.2% gap. Market is CORRECTLY pricing LAD advantage
- NRFI 55.7% LAD prob — market appropriately balanced. No first-inning edge
Risk Factors
- No compelling edge after market respect for LAD pitching quality
- Run line is D-grade market historically (50.3% WR) — structural disadvantage despite +6.3% edge
- Both pitchers are solid (sub-3.2 ERA) — run suppression expected, making totals unders appealing but under market is DISABLED
PITCHER MISMATCHMODEL MARKET CONFLICT
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
LAD 58.5%
+6.3 pts
Run Line
-1.5
+6.3 pts
Total
8.5
+3.1 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →